● The Devil Never Sleeps: Learning to Live in an Age of Disasters
Juliette Kayyem
Interview with author via Lawfare
We live in a time of seemingly constant catastrophes, and we always seem a step behind and still fumble when they occur. It’s no longer about preventing disasters from occurring, but learning how to use the tools at our disposal to minimize the consequences when they inevitably do.
Juliette Kayyem has just written a book about it all called, “The Devil Never Sleeps: Learning to Live in an Age of Disasters.” Juliette is a lecturer at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government and a CNN national security analyst, and David Priess sat down with her to talk about it all.

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Commodities continued to top monthly returns for the major asset classes in March. The leadership marks the third straight month that raw materials outperformed the rest of the field by a wide margin, based on a set of proxy ETFs.

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* Biden orders release of oil to lower gas prices
* UK will join US in releasing oil from strategic reserve
* Ukraine strikes Russian military depot inside Russia
* Global dealmaking falls to lowest level since start of pandemic
* China factory activity falls at fastest pace in two years via survey data
* 2yr/10yr Treasury yield curve inverts for first time since 2019 on Thursday
* US jobless claims rise after touching 50-year low
* Consumer spending growth for US cools in February
* US personal income growth picks up in February, in line with estimates
* US stocks post first quarterly decline in Q1 in two years:

Energy stocks are enjoying the mother of all upside outlier performances for US equity sectors this year, based on a set of ETFs through Mar. 30. Only two other sectors are posting year-to-date gains, but at levels that barely register relative to energy’s run.

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* Russian military continues to attack Ukraine after promising to scale back
* Biden may release 1 million barrels a day from Strategic Petroleum Reserve
* Export boom for US natural-gas is pinching supply and lifting prices
* Will rising mortgage rates cool the red-hot rise in US home prices?
* Economists see signs of a US housing bubble
* Rising wages could complicate progress on cooling US inflation
* China manufacturing and services activity contract in March via survey data
* Germany and Austria take steps toward rationing gas
* US private payrolls continue increasing a solid pace in March, ADP reports
* US Q4 GDP growth revised down slightly to still-strong +6.9%
* 2yr/10yr US Treasury curve slips again, close to inverting at +4 basis points:

In a recent backtest of adding a dedicated allocation to volatility (VIX) via a specialty ETF for enhancing risk management in a traditional 60/40 stock/bond strategy, the results were encouraging, or at least intriguing. Given a new round of extreme shifts in financial markets this year, an update seems in order.

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* Russia will “drastically reduce” combat operations in two key areas of Ukraine
* Russia’s pledge to reduce military operations in Ukraine elicits skepticism
* Is it premature to conclude that Putin’s miscalculated?
* Germany takes a step toward rationing gas amid payment stand-off with Russia
* Russia’s loss is Canada’s gain for commodities exports
* Highly contagious BA.2 subvariant of Covid-19 is now dominant strain in US
* Rising number of Americans worry about inflation, according to new survey
* 2yr/10yr Treasury yield curve inverted on Tuesday, signaling recession risk
* Pimco says yield-curve inversion may not be reliable recession indicator this time
* US home prices reacceleated in January, up 19.2% from year-ago level
* Job openings in US remain near record high in February
* US Consumer Confidence Index rose slightly in March:

The odds of a US economic contraction in the immediate future remain low, but blowback from the Ukraine war and elevated inflation risk could quickly change the calculus. Data published to date, however, still indicates that the economy will continue to expand for the near term.

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* New round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia begin
* Joe Biden’s $5.8 trillion budget for next year would trim federal deficits
* US job openings still exceed job takers, private data show for March
* Global supply chain risk is rising again
* Possible strike by West Coast dockworkers looms for supply-chain risk
* China’s planned lockdown of Shanghai raises concerns about energy demand
* German consumer sentiment falls to lowest level since Feb 2021
* Dallas Fed Mfg Index continues to show moderate growth for March
* US goods trade deficit narrows in Feb, but remains near record
* US 2-year Treasury yield continues rising, reaching new three-year high:

A broad mix of commodities topped returns for the major asset classes for the trading week through Friday, Mar. 25, based on a set of ETFs. The gain marks a shift for raw materials after declines for two weeks in a row.

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