* Biden says he’ll halt Russia, fight inflation in State of the Union address
* Oil prices at risk of skyrocketing from already high levels
* Brent oil, the international benchmark, tops $110 a barrel on Wednesday
* Three paths for how the Ukraine war ends
* Global supply chains face new pressures as Ukraine war continues
* White House says US is realigning trade policy toward China
* Eurozone headline inflation rises to record 5.1% January as core inflation eases
* Global manufacturing activity registers moderate pace of growth in February
* US manufacturing activity posts another solid performance in Feb via ISM data
* US Q1 GDP estimate now at 0% growth via Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model:

Most markets around the world continued to slide in February, marking the second month of widespread losses in 2022 for the major asset classes. The main exceptions: commodities and inflation-indexed government bonds.

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* Russia set to launch all-out assault on Ukraine’s Kyiv
* US economy appears set to withstand shock from Ukraine crisis
* Western sanctions threaten inflation surge and shortages in Russia
* Russian ruble fell about 30% against the US dollar on Monday
* Russian markets increasingly look uninvestable
* ICC will open investigation into charges of war crimes committed in Ukraine
* Shell, BP and other oil firms exit joint ventures with Russia
* China’s factory activity expanded slightly in February
* US trade deficit in goods increased sharply to record high in January
* 10-year Treasury yield falls to 3-week low as risk-off sentiment strengthens:

Markets tried to look through Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last week, but as the brutal reality of war becomes clearer, and economic blowback spreads across the global economy, sentiment will come under increased pressure in the days ahead.

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* Russian and Ukrainian officials will meet for talks as war rages on
* Next 24 hours will be crucial for Ukraine, says country’s president
* The West adds more sanctions on Russia but largely exempts energy exports
* Putin puts nuclear forces on high alert
* Russian currency plunges amid expanding financial sanctions from the West
* JP Morgan advises that selling equities now faces whipsaw risk
* Geopolitical storm will test consumers’ appetite and ability to spend.
* US consumer spending posts robust gain in January as inflation picked up
* US real Treasury yields are rebounding but still deeply negative:

● The Next Age of Uncertainty: How the World Can Adapt to a Riskier Future
Stephen Poloz
Interview with author via Financial Post
Stephen Poloz, who spent seven years as the Bank of Canada governor before stepping down in July 2020… identifies five “tectonic” forces — an aging population, technological progress, rising inequality, rising debt and climate change — that are going to interact under the surface and create new crises for at least a decade.
We talked about how this will work, the energy transition, inflation, rising interest rates, why he thinks employees will gain an edge over employers and much more.

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Europe’s violent history had been in remission, but it returned with a vengeance this week when Russia invaded Ukraine. It’s been comforting to assume that decades of relative peace on the Continent and its near-periphery had become the new norm and that centuries of war had passed into history as a real and present danger. But the world has been reminded anew that the long arc of history isn’t easily dispatched.

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* Russian forces moving in on Ukrainian capital of Kyiv
* Kremlin will analyze Ukraine’s offer to discuss a non-aligned status
* Countries around the world continue to pile new sanctions on Russia
* Ukraine war reshuffles risk outlook for global economy
* Will the Russian invasion of Ukraine change the Fed’s rate-hike plans?
* EU set to sever 70% of Russia’s banking system from global markets
* US officials asked China for help to avoid war in Ukraine. China said no
* Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens exports of critical commodities
* US growth picked up in January via Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index
* US jobless claims fell last week; Q4 GDP growth revised slightly higher
* Brent oil surged on Thursday before ending just below $100/bbl:

If there was any subtlety to Russia’s increasingly intimidating behavior toward Ukraine in recent weeks, it gave way today as Putin launched a full-scale military invasion of its neighbor. How this plays out is unclear, except that whatever unfolds it’s obvious that a major geopolitical regime shift has been triggered. Exactly what this means for the global economy, markets, international relations and beyond is hazy at best this morning. Meanwhile, here are three key questions to ponder as a needless war begins just across Europe’s eastern border.

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* Russia invades Ukraine with barrage of missile, artillery and air attacks
* Easing energy price shock by raising output will be limited due to pinched supply
* Gold rises above $1900/oz, highest in over a year, as Russia invades Ukraine
* Oil’s surge will bring double shock of slowing growth and raising inflation
* US and allies poised to roll out further, sweeping sanctions against Russia
* China refuses to condemn Russia’s attack on Ukraine
* Oil prices soar amid worries about future energy supplies: