The US stock market wiped out the last of its coronavirus losses on Tuesday (Aug. 18), delivering a rapid rebound from a devastating drawdown. As Reuters notes, this year’s slide is the shortest bear market on record. But from the perspective of the market’s sectors, there’s a wide array of pain and gain to consider.
Author Archives: James Picerno
Macro Briefing | 19 August 2020
Democrats nominate Biden as presidential candidate to run against Trump: AP
Democratic and Republican leaders look for opening on stimulus talks: BBG
Trump: “I cancelled [trade] talks with China”: SCMP
US stock market (S&P 500) closed at record high on Tuesday: NYT
The S&P 500 recovers from the shortest bear market on record: Reuters
BoA survey: fund managers think a new bull market has started: II
Despite coronavirus, UK inflation jumps to the highest since March: Reuters
Japan’s exports drop sharply due to coronavirus: BC
US housing construction roared higher in July, extending rebound: BBG
Partial Recovery Expected For US Q3 GDP
The unprecedented decline in in US economic output in the second quarter is currently on track to recover less than half the loss in Q3, according to several GDP nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The estimates are vulnerable to the high uncertainty related to the path of the coronavirus in the remaining weeks of Q3, but for the moment the prospects appear to favor a partial rebound.
Macro Briefing | 18 August 2020
California suffers first rolling blackouts in nearly two decades: Politico
China says US damaging global trade with Huawei sanctions: BC
Gold rebounds above $2000/oz. on renewed US-China tensions: BBG
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund — world’s largest — suffers huge 1H loss: CNBC
The recession is just starting to hit US cities: NYT
Latest Covid-19 retail victim: Marks & Spencer to cut 7,000 jobs: MW
NY Fed Mfg Index: sector growth slowed sharply in August: Mstar
US homebuilder sentiment in August rises to match record high: CNBC
Foreign Stocks, Non-US Property Shares Topped Gains Last Week
Equities in developed markets ex-US topped returns for the major asset classes during the trading week through Aug. 14, based on a set of exchange traded funds. In second place: real estate shares listed outside the US.
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Macro Briefing | 17 August 2020
Pelosi calls back Congress over Postal Service troubles: Politico
Belarus leader says he’s ready to share power after protests: Reuters
S. Korea warns of a new coronavirus outbreak: Reuters
Europe’s economic recovery appears to be fading: BBG
Is Buffett’s purchase of gold mining shares a bet on the economic outlook? MW
California struggling to meet electricity demand in heatwave: WSJ
Japan’s GDP fell at record rate in the second quarter: CNN
US retail spending continued to rebound in July but growth slowed: CNBC
US consumer sentiment index remains near pandemic low in August: MW
Scientists find encouraging signs of Covid-19 immunity developing: NYT
10-year Treasury yield rose to two-month high last week:
Book Bits | 15 August 2020
Jim Tankersley
Summary via publisher (Public Affairs)
For over a decade, Jim Tankersley has been on a journey to understand what the hell happened to the world’s greatest middle-class success story — the post-World-War-II boom that faded into decades of stagnation and frustration for American workers. In The Riches of This Land, Tankersley fuses the story of forgotten Americans– struggling women and men who he met on his journey into the travails of the middle class– with important new economic and political research, providing fresh understanding how to create a more widespread prosperity. He begins by unraveling the real mystery of the American economy since the 1970s – not where did the jobs go, but why haven’t new and better ones been created to replace them.
Three Market “Anomalies” Test Contrarian Strategies
There’s an old Wall Street proverb that warns that the market can remain irrational for longer than you can stay solvent. The wisdom, or at least the empirical reality of that idea, has been put to the test in recent years on at least three fronts in the equity market via the persistent outperformance of growth stocks over value, large caps over small caps and US over foreign.
Macro Briefing | 14 August 2020
Stimulus talks in Congress remain in limbo over $1 trillion aid to states: BBG
Israel and UAE sign historic deal that could reorder Mideast geopolitics: AC
US seizes Iranian fuel cargo to enforce sanctions: WSJ
Trump blocks coronavirus aid to derail funding for mail-in voting: Reuters
Greek and Turkish warships involved in ‘mini-collision’ in Mediterranean: Reuters
China’s industrial rebound continues but retail sales still sliding in July: SCMP
Is the stock market too optimistic in pricing in economic recovery? MW
US import prices rise for third straight month in July: MW
US jobless claims fell below 1-million mark last week–lowest since March: CNBC
Tech, Consumer Discretionary Continue To Lead US Equity Sectors
Positive momentum has continued to shine as a forward indicator for technology and consumer discretionary stocks in recent months. Both sectors remain the sector leaders in the US, based on a set of exchange traded funds through yesterday’s close (Aug. 12). Meanwhile, the lagging sectors show few signs that a turnaround is imminent.