The worst phase of the pandemic crisis in the US may be easing, but economic projections for the immediate future remain grim. Recent estimates for the upcoming second-quarter report for GDP tell the story—a tsunami of deeply negative projections. Amid the macro darkness, the Federal Reserve today, as part of a monetary statement, is scheduled to release its own set of revised economic projections.

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White House adviser says new stimulus bill odds ‘are very, very high’: WSJ
OECD considers economic impact of a second coronavirus wave: Bloomberg
Worrisome Covid-19 trends in India, Brazil and South Africa: Vox
Consumer inflation in China slowed to 14-month low in May: Caixin
China’s industrial deflation continued to deepen in May: MW
What’s expected for today’s Federal Reserve meeting? CNBC
Pandemic threatens to upend business models for retail properties: NY Times
Small Business Optimism Index in the US rebounded moderately in May: NFIB
US job openings fell to a five-year low in April: CNBC

The clues are starting pile up that the deepest phase of the economic loss for the US coronavirus recession has passed. There’s still a long way to go to climb out of the hole, but data published to date suggest that the recovery process has started.

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Politicians consider defunding police after George Floyd protests: NY Times
22 US states report rising cases of Covid-19 infections: CNN
Daily change in US Covid-19 deaths falls to new post-peak low: Reuters
North Korea cuts off communication with South Korea: CNN
India and China agree to peacefully settle border tensions: CNBC
Will strong US jobs report for May fuel a rise in Treasury yields? CNBC
Up to 25,000 US stores may close this year: Bloomberg
Longest US economic expansion on record officially ended in February: NBER
US stocks (S&P 500) closed on Monday with a fractional year-to-date gain: CNN

US and foreign property shares led returns in last week’s broad rise in global markets, based on a set of exchange traded funds tracking the major asset classes. over the trading week ended June 5.
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Minneapolis City Council members favor ending police dept: Reuters
Some US states reporting a rise in virus cases, including California: WSJ
New Zealand says country is virus-free: BBC
Signs that the US economy is starting to recover: CNBC
Morgan Stanley bets on a steepening Treasury yield curve: Bloomberg
Was jobs surge in May a game-changer for markets and the economy? CNBC
Fed considers policy to actively peg certain rates at low levels: WSJ
Germany’s industrial output fell a record 17.9% in April: MW
US payrolls rose dramatically in May–biggest upside surprise in history: MW
US economic policy uncertainty falls to lowest level since early March: SLFed

● The End of Jobs: The Rise of On-Demand Workers and Agile Corporations
Jeff Wald
Summary via publisher (Post Hill Press)
The world has witnessed three step functions in technological change: mechanization, electrification, and computerization. These industrial revolutions led to massive increases in productivity and thus the need for fewer workers. With each of these technological breakthroughs, the power balance between companies and workers shifted heavily to companies. The abuses of that power by companies instigated employee unrest and sometimes even armed uprisings. Counterbalancing forces rose to constrain companies’ power, eventually prompting unions, regulation, and the social safety net to bring stability to the relationship.
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It’s long been established that stock market returns aren’t normally distributed and that fat tails (extreme returns that are unexpected for a normal distribution) apply. This has implications, of course, for portfolio design and management. The first question: What are the choices for managing tail risk for equity exposures? There are many answers, each with a different set of pros and cons. Perhaps the first choice to consider: focus on longer-term results and look through the shorter-term noise. Is this a viable risk-management strategy? Let’s take a look at the data for insight.
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Is the slow rise in US coronavirus cases since Memorial Day noise? CNBC
US exports and imports down sharply in April due to coronavirus: WSJ
Jobless rate expected to soar to 20% in today’s employment report: Reuters
US warship sailed through Taiwan Strait on Thursday: Reuters
Deflation risk warrants further ECB bond buying, central banker says: BBG
Germany factory orders plunged in April: AP
People with type A blood more likely to suffer severe Covid-19 symptoms: NYT
New filings for unemployment continued to surge in the US last week: CNBC

The S&P 500 Index rose again on Wednesday (June 3), closing at a three-month high and paring the market’s drawdown to a relatively mild 7.8% decline — a shadow of the  nearly 34% drawdown at the height of the correction on March 23. Fueling the market’s rebound is the view that the worst of the coronavirus recession has passed and the recovery is coming into view. Is this wishful thinking? Or is the crowd’s implied forecast valid? The future, as always, remains unknown, but let’s consider the pros and cons of Mr. Market’s outlook for some perspective.

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