Author Archives: James Picerno

Macro Briefing: 20 November 2020

CDC asks Americans to stay home on Thanksgiving: NYT
Treasury Sec. asks Fed to return unused emergency lending funds: PLTC
Georgia recount reaffirms Biden win in the state: AP
Afghanistan braces for acceleration of drawdown in US troops: WSJ
World trade rebounded but is vulnerable to resurgent coronavirus: WTO
High-profile bond defaults in China worry investors: CNBC
Early Christmas shopping lifted UK retail sales in Oct: FT
US existing home sales rose in Oct–highest level since 2006: CNBC
US jobless claims surprised analysts and accelerated last week: CNBC

Revisiting First Principles For Portfolio Design: Part I

Even in a pandemic, the foundation for building and managing investment portfolios persevere. That’s easy to overlook amid a firehose of new investment products, roller coaster swings in markets and a global health crisis. Although there’s (still) no silver bullet for success, at least there’s an obvious, productive starting point: the “market” portfolio.
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Macro Briefing: 19 November 2020

US coronavirus deaths continue to rise sharply: PLTCO
States with fewest restrictions suffer worst virus outbreaks: NYT
Oxford Covid vaccine trials shows encouraging results for older adults: CNBC
Georgia recount expected to reaffirm that Biden won state: RTRS
Asia-Pacific countries eye freer trade policy with Biden administration: RTRS
Today’s US jobless claims report likely to show new applications remain high: WSJ
ECB president pledges robust stimulus in Dec to support Eurozone economy: BBG
Why is bitcoin surging? MW
Trump’s last stand to overturn Biden win: Electoral College delegates: PLTCO
Single-family home construction in US rose more than forecast in Oct: BBG

Macro Briefing: 18 November 2020

Fed chairman: resurgent virus is a threat to the economy: WSJ
Trump orders faster drawdown of US troops in Afghanistan and Iraq: BBG
Trump fires Dept of Homeland cybersecurity chief: CNBC
Data suggest Covid-19 immunity lasts for years: NYT
Controversial Fed nominee Judy Shelton is blocked in Senate: CNBC
US FDA approves first home-testing kit for coronavirus: RTRS
Industrial output in US rebounded in October: MW
US home builder sentiment rises to a new record high in Nov: RD
US import prices were surprisingly weak in October: CNBC
US retail sales growth slowed in October: RTRS

US Equity Sector Rotation In Progress?

Traders appear to be placing new bets on the reflation trade through equity sector bets in energy, basic materials and industrials stocks, based on a set of exchange traded funds. It’s too early to know if this is a sustainable shift, but the change in tone in recent days is too hard to ignore.

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Macro Briefing: 17 November 2020

Trump considered bombing Iran last week: NYT
Trump blocks incoming Biden staff on multiple fronts: PLTC
Several US states impose new Covid-19 restrictions: Reuters
Moderna says its coronavirus vaccine is 94.5% effective: CNN
Pfizer to launch pilot delivery program for vaccine in four US states: RTRS
Judy Shelton’s Fed confirmation in doubt as GOP support wanes: MW
Amazon launches online pharmacy: CNBC
US retail sales expected to post 6th monthly gain in today’s Oct report: WSJ
Hungary and Poland block European Union budget: BBC
NY Fed Mfg Index: manufacturing sector growth slowed in November: MSTAR
US stock market (S&P 500) rallies to new record high:

Macro Briefing: 16 November 2020

US coronavirus cases passes 11 million mark: RTRS
Health officials warn of risks from Trump’s transition delays: POLT
China extends economic influence with new Asia-Pacific trade pact: BBC
Asia-Pacific trade deal is a win for China, say analysts: CNBC
China’s economy appears to be accelerating in Q4: WSJ
Trump plans hard-line moves against China before he leaves office: BBG
Japan’s economy rebounded sharply in Q3 after a deep slump: NIK
UK Prime Minister is self-isolating after possible Covid-19 exposure: CNBC
US consumer sentiment pulled back in early November: RTRS

Book Bits: 14 November 2020

Beyond Diversification: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Asset Allocation
Sebastien Page
Summary via publisher (McGraw-Hill)
Asset allocation is the key to investing performance. Unfortunately, no single approach works perfectly—developing the right balance requires a clear-eyed look at the many models available to you, various investing methodologies, and your or your client’s level of risk tolerance. And that’s where this important guide comes in. Written by a leading allocation expert from T. Rowe Price, Beyond Diversification provides the knowledge, insights, and approaches you need to make the best allocation decisions for your goals. This deep dive into the how’s and why’s of asset allocation is organized by the three decisive components of a successfully allocated portfolio.

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