Author Archives: James Picerno

Macro Briefing | 15 May 2020

House to vote on $3 trillion coronavirus aid package: CNN
World Trade Organization chief quits: NY Times
Slow recovery for China’s economy is a warning to world: Bloomberg
No visibility on when US will reopen to international travelers: Reuters
German economy fell in Q1–biggest decline since financial crisis: CNBC
Record drop for US retail sales expected in today’s April report: CNBC
US jobless claims surged 2.6 million last week due to coronavirus shutdowns: MW
Crude oil, after dramatic fall, recovers to highest level since April 3:

Macro Briefing | 14 May 2020

WHO official: the coronavirus may never go away: MW
GOP isn’t ready to OK more coronavirus aid: AP
Will a 2nd coronavirus wave convince Fed to use use negative rates? CNBC
Economists expect US unemployment rate to rise to 17% in June: WSJ
Today’s jobless claims report: another huge increase expected: MW
Fed’s Powell dismisses negative rates as policy tool: CNBC
Lloyd’s of London: coronavirus payout claims will be biggest since 9/11: BBC
Wholesale inflation’s annual trend goes negative in April: MW

Macro Briefing | 13 May 2020

House Democrats unveil new $3 trillion coronavirus relief bill: ABC
High stakes for reopening US economy: Politico
New tax breaks starting to flow to US businesses: WSJ
Fauci, speaking to Congress, urges caution on vaccine expectations: CNBC
US Afghanistan peace deal with Taliban dealt another blow after attacks: CNN
Grocery prices in US post highest monthly increase since 1974: Miami Herald
UK economy contracted nearly 6% in March: Bloomberg
US job losses may be slowing: NY Times
US consumer inflation 1-year trend slowed sharply in April: MW

Managing Economic Recovery Expectations With Payrolls Data

We’re all desperate for a quick economic recovery, but desperation can be the enemy of informed thinking for looking ahead. As an example, consider recent commentary in some corners that a V-shaped economic recovery (a strong, quick bounce-back) for the US is likely because that’s the usual path, based on reviewing the history of gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic activity. This spin on macro history looks encouraging, but assuming GDP is last word on economic recoveries is assuming too much.

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Macro Briefing | 12 May 2020

Fauci today will warn Senate of risks to early economic opening: NY Times
Biggest US mall owner plans to open 50% of properities by the weekend: CNBC
US auto workers return to jobs amid worries of second virus wave: Reuters
Fed to start buying corporate bond ETFs today: Bloomberg
US consumer inflation expected to fall for second month in today’s update: WSJ
V-shaped recovery unlikely for China, data suggest: WSJ
China’s factory deflation deepened in April: Reuters
S&P 500 volatility (VIX Index) closed at 11-week low yesterday (May 11):

Macro Briefing | 11 May 2020

White House talks to Congress on new coronavirus relief legislation: Reuters
New infections in Wuhan raise concerns of a rebound in epicenter: Reuters
Minneapolis Fed President: “worst is yet to come on the job front”: BBG
Signs of permanent economic coronavirus damage in US begin to emerge: WSJ
How quickly will the US economy recovery from Covid-19 crisis? NY Times
US Covid-19 daily change in deaths fell to 6-week low on Sun (May 10): JHU
Study points to a new Covid-19 treatment that quickens recovery: NY Times
US job losses in April: fastest decline on record: ECRI

Book Bits | 9 May 2020

Ultimate Price: The Value We Place on Life
Howard Steven Friedman
Summary via publisher (U. of California Press)
How much is a human life worth? Individuals, families, companies, and governments routinely place a price on human life. The calculations that underlie these price tags are often buried in technical language, yet they influence our economy, laws, behaviors, policies, health, and safety. These price tags are often unfair, infused as they are with gender, racial, national, and cultural biases that often result in valuing the lives of the young more than the old, the rich more than the poor, whites more than blacks, Americans more than foreigners, and relatives more than strangers. This is critical since undervalued lives are left less-protected and more exposed to risk.
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