How has the US stock market performed so far this year? The answer, as always, depends on the definition of “the market.” If we’re slicing and dicing by factor buckets these days, the possibility of radically different answers has rarely been so stark.
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Author Archives: James Picerno
Macro Briefing | 3 September 2020
Federal government tells states to prepare for coronavirus vaccine by Nov. 1: ABC
Germany says Russia opposition leader poisoned with a nerve agent: BBC
Pressure grows for Germany to abandon gas pipeline from Russia: Reuters
Economists manage expectations down for global economic outlook: Politico
China’s services sector posted “another solid increase” in August: IHS Markit
US economic rebound softened in August, Fed’s Beige Book reports: MW
Factory orders in US rose more than expected in July: Reuters
US federal debt set to reach 98% of economy in fiscal year 2020: NYT
US private payrolls rose in September but far below expected gain: CNBC
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: Volatility On Holiday
One day volatility will return to the financial markets. When that day arrives (and why) is anyone’s guess. Meantime, vol remains in remission across the major asset classes, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 September 2020
The risk premia estimate for the Global Market Index (GMI) rose to 5.0% in August, 20 basis point above the previous month’s estimate. This long-run forecast, which can be varies modestly from month to month, reflects an outlook for performance over the “risk-free” rate, according to a risk-based model (details below).
Macro Briefing | 2 September 2020
Health experts see risk of new wave of Covid-19 infections this winter: CNBC
Trump makes controversial visit to Kenosha: Reuters
US-Russia military clashes around the world are rising: NYT
Treasury Secretary: US economy needs more gov’t stimulus: BBG
Fed’s Brainard: central bank should do more to support economy: MW
Australia in recession for first time in decades: WSJ
Global mfg growth picked up in Aug, rising to 21-month high: IHS Markit
China manufacturing PMI rose to 9-year high in August: CNBC
Home prices rise 5.5% in July, well ahead of 1.0% CPI inflation: CoreLogic
US construction spending rose in July–first monthly gain since February: Reuters
US manufacturing activity rebounded in Aug to strongest pace since late-2018: ISM
Major Asset Classes | August 2020 | Performance Review
August was another risk-on month. Except for investment-grade bonds in the US and foreign-government fixed income in developed markets, across-the-board gains dominated the major asset classes higher last month.
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Macro Briefing | 1 September 2020
Trumps risks stoking racial tensions with trip to Kenosha today: AP
US announces new economic support for Taiwan to counter China: Reuters
China’s mfg sector continued to recover in Aug, PMI survey data shows: CNBC
China’s exports are surging despite Trump’s tariffs: NYT
China’s economic growth in 2020 expected to slow to just 2%: BBG
Eurozone mfg sector held on to a modest recovery in Aug: IHS Markit
India’s economy contracted at a record pace in Q2: CNN
US corporate bond real yields go negative for short maturities: FT
US Stocks Led Broad-Based Gains In Major Asset Classes Last Week
American shares led a global rally for the trading week ended Aug. 28, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. With the exception of investment-grade bonds in the US, risk-on sentiment lifted every corner of the major asset classes.
Macro Briefing | 31 August 2020
FDA to expedite coronavirus vaccine before phase three trials end: CNBC
One dead in clash between Trump supporters and Oregon protesters: AP
Dems consider response after US intel chief ends election security briefings: USAT
Belarus protests continue, calling for president to step down: BBC
Does the Fed have the tools to carry out its new monetary policy? WSJ
Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway buys stakes in Japanese trading firms: CNBC
US consumer spending growth slowed in July, rising for 3rd straight month: CNBC
Book Bits | 29 August 2020
Mauro F. Guillen
Review via Eurasia Review
“Ideas are like rabbits. You get a couple and learn how to handle them, and pretty soon you have a dozen.” This John Steinbeck quote, featured in the concluding chapter of Mauro F. Guillen’s 2030: How Today’s Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything, is quite apt. 2030 is full of hypotheses and projections about, well, the state of the world in the year 2030. The most obvious place to start would be shifting demographics. The book spends much of its time writing about how the human population will look vastly different by 2030.
