Business activity in the US services sector accelerated in December, according to the survey-based ISM Services Index. The index rose to 54.1, rising further above the neutral 50 mark, indicating a solid pace of expansion. A possible warning sign for inflation in the report is the strength in the prices index for services. “There was general optimism expressed across many industries, but tariff concerns elicited the most panelist comments,” says Steve Miller, chair of ISM’s Business Survey Committee.

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US economic activity looks set to post softer growth in the government’s upcoming fourth-quarter GDP report. Based on the median nowcast from several sources, output appears set to downshift to the slowest increase since 2024’s first quarter.

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US factory orders fell more than expected in November. New orders for manufactured goods dropped 0.4% compared with October, marking the fourth monthly decline in the past four. For the year-over-year trend, factory orders have slumped 1.9% in November, remaining in a tight range around zero change that’s prevailed over the past 18 months.

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There are many reasons to question a bullish outlook at the start of the year, but the gravity-defying trend remains intact overall, based on a set of ETF pairs that track global asset allocation strategies through Friday’s close (Jan. 3). The analysis turns mixed, however, when analyzing markets on a more granular level.

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US manufacturing’s contraction eased in December, according to the ISM Manufacturing Index. The survey-based indicator rose to 49.3 last month, the highest since March. Despite the improvement, the index remains below the neutral 50 mark and has reflected contraction for 25 of the past 26 months. Meanwhile, analysts at ING advise that “US manufacturing shows encouraging signs of life… after languishing for much of the past two years.”

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● Prop Trading Secrets: How Successful Traders are Living off the Markets
Kathy Lien and Etienne Crete
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
In Prop Trading Secrets of Successful Funded Traders: How Individual Traders are using Proprietary Trading to Achieve Financial Freedom, Kathy Lien, author and managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management, and Etienne Crete, full-time trader and founder of Desire to Trade, deliver a collection of 14 revealing interviews with proprietary traders successfully making a living off the markets. You’ll explore insights from veteran traders with over 10 years’ experience in the markets, winners of a variety of trading championships, and contemporary prop traders using methods like funded accounts to trade other people’s money.

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The expected return over the long run for the Global Market Index (GMI) held steady in December vs. the previous month. The unchanged forecast, based on three models defined below, reflects a second month with the highest return outlook in recent history for this multi-asset-class global benchmark.

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US jobless claims fell to an 8-month low last week. “While last week’s data included a long holiday, the drop in new claims, the year’s first important piece of economic data, suggested that the labor market remains resilient,” writes an analyst RSM US LLP.

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US equities led global markets by a wide margin in 2024, a year of mixed results overall for the major asset classes, based on a set of ETFs.

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The US stock market (SPY) ended 2024 with a strong 24.5% calendar-year total return. By contrast, US bonds (BND) posted a tepid gain last year of just 1.1%.

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