Author Archives: James Picerno

Macro Briefing: 14 November 2018

UK and EU reach provisional agreement on Brexit: CNBC
Democratic gains rise a week after mid-term elections: NY Times
China’s retail spending trend slows as industrial output picks up: Reuters
German economy shrank in Q3, first decline since 2015: Bloomberg
Japan’s economy contracted in Q3 due to natural disasters: Japan Times
Several bearish factors continue to weigh on crude oil prices: MW
Spain will ban all gas-powered cars by 2040: Gizmodo
Analysts expect headline consumer inflation to rise 0.3% in Oct vs. Sep’s 0.1%: MNI
US small business optimism held near record high in Oct: NFIB

Macro Briefing: 13 November 2018

Audio recording seems to link Khashoggi killing to Crown Prince: NY Times
Democrat wins US Senate race in Arizona: CBS
Lawsuits and accusations swirl as Florida recount battle deepens: WaPo
N. Korea maintains secret missile bases, defying promises to US: Reuters
Gaza launches barrage of rockets at Israel: CNN
Amazon chooses New York and Northern Virginia for HQ2 locations: WSJ
SF Fed President: more rate hikes needed with full US employment: MNI
Moody’s: global credit conditions expected to weaken in 2019: P&I
US gasoline prices slide for a fifth straight week: 24/7 Wall Street
Expect rise in number of economic surprises for the US: Vanguard
Crude oil falls for 12th straight session, longest decline on record: Bloomberg

Macro Briefing: 12 November 2018

A grim milestone for deaths in California’s fires: BBC
At WWI ceremony in France a warning: ‘old demons are rising again’: Time
Is climate change becoming too complex and divisive to solve? Axios
Global oil producers close to cutting production: Fox Business
Does Australia’s long-running expansion hold lessons for US policy? Bloomberg
US dollar close to 17-month high in early trading on Monday: Reuters
China says it will further open up its economy: Reuters
The vote recounts in Florida, Georgia and Arizona are razor close: NY Times
US wholesale inflation surged in Oct, highest pace in over 6 years: CNBC
US wholesale inventories in Sep rose a bit more than previously estimated: CNBC
US Consumer Sentiment Index for Nov still reflects upbeat economic outlook: MW

Book Bits | 10 November 2018

Merger Masters: Tales of Arbitrage
By Kate Welling and Mario Gabelli
Summary via publisher (Columbia University Press)
Merger Masters presents revealing profiles of monumentally successful merger investors based on exclusive interviews with some of the greatest minds to practice the art of arbitrage. Michael Price, John Paulson, Paul Singer, and others offer practical perspectives on how their backgrounds in the risk-conscious world of merger arbitrage helped them make their biggest deals. They share their insights on the discipline that underlies their fortunes, whether they practice the “plain vanilla” strategy of announced deals, the aggressive strategy of activist investment, or any strategy in between on the risk spectrum. Merger Masters delves into the human side of risk arbitrage, exploring how top practitioners deal with the behavioral aspects of generating consistent profits from risk arbitrage.
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Is The Treasury Market Predicting That US Inflation Has Peaked?

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday, but the central bank continued to signal that a hike at next month’s policy meeting remains a possibility. The reasoning is that the US economy continues to post solid growth. But a closer look at the numbers suggests that the pace of expansion is slowing. There are also hints that the reflation trend over the past year or so may be rolling over. If so, the case could be weakening for more policy tightening.
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Macro Briefing: 9 November 2018

Ex-marine identified as gunman in Thousand Oaks, Calif. shooting: CNN
Fed leaves rates unchanged, noting slowdown in business invesment: CNBC
China’s car sales declined for fourth month in October: Reuters
China’s inflation remained tame in October: Bloomberg
Trump rolls out regulation to limit asylum access at the US-Mexico border: Politico
Florida’s Senate race still in doubt and recount is likely: The Hill
Democrat pulls ahead in Arizona’s too-close-to-call Senate race: The Hill
Federal judge blocks Keystone XL pipeline construction: NY Times
US jobless claims ticked down last week, holding near multi-decade low: CNBC
Crude oil (W. Texas Int.) falls again, settling at lowest price since March: MW

Macro Briefing: 8 November 2018

US Attorney General Jeff Sessions resigned at Trump’s request: The Hill
Sessions’ resignation is stoking political firestorm on Capitol Hill: Politico
Fed expected to leave rates unchanged today and continue hiking in Dec: Reuters
Russia downplays prospects for relations with US after Dems take House: CNN
US mortgage applications close to four-year low: Bloomberg
Stock market bulls say gridlock is good in Washington: MarketWatch
China’s imports and exports in October exceeded forecasts: CNBC
US consumer borrowing growth slowed in Sep: MarketWatch
Policy sensitive 2yr Treasury yield ticks up to new post-recession high of 2.93%: