Early estimates of GDP growth for the US in the fourth quarter point to another round of deceleration, based on the median for a set of projections compiled by The Capital Spectator. Although it’s still early in the quarter, leaving room for changes in the outlook based on incoming data, the preliminary numbers hint at the possibility that growth will continue to cool in the final three months of 2018.
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Democrats take back the House; GOP holds Senate: MarketWatch
A Democratic House is eager to take on Trump: Politico
House Democrats will probably change US foreign policy: Reuters
How will the election results influence the stock market? CNBC
Global economic growth edged up at the start of Q4: IHS Markit
PMI data for Eurozone: growth slowed to lowest pace in over 2 years: IHS Markit
US job openings dipped in Sep but still near record high: CNBC

Slicing and dicing the US equity market into factor buckets is, at its core, an effort to enhance return by engineering more control over risk management. A key part of this framework is recognizing that risk and return for the stock market overall is a byproduct of multiple factors, such as shares trading at low valuations or posting strong price momentum in the recent past. In turn, it’s reasonable to assume that a set of factor ETFs will exhibit relatively low correlations with one another, offering a degree of diversification otherwise unavailable via standard portfolio designs for capturing equity beta. To test that assumption, let’s review the return correlations for a broad set of factor ETFs in recent history.
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Democrats appear to have an edge in today’s election: FiveThirtyEight
Facebook discloses possible election meddling by Russia: USA Today
Trump’s decision to deploy troops to border will cost $200M-$300M: CNN
Supreme Court refuses to hear appeal over net neutrality rules: The Hill
China’s VP: China is ready to resolve trade dispute with US: CNBC
Services PMI for US reflects “strong” business activity for Oct: IHS Markit
US ISM Non-Mfg Index for Oct reflects “strong growth”: CNBC

Led by equities in emerging markets, stocks around the world rebounded last week, based on a set of exchange-traded products that represent the major asset classes. The positive results for equities follows a wave of selling in the previous week for global stock markets. Meanwhile, last week’s big losers: broadly defined commodities and investment-grade bonds in the US.
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Polls give Dems slight edge for House, GOP for Senate: RealClearPolitics
Is Trump’s focus on immigration over the economy hurting the GOP? Politico
What the Dems would do if they take back the House: Bloomberg
China Services PMI: growth slowed to 13-month low in October: CNBC
China’s Xi promises to lift imports and lower trade barriers: Reuters
US payrolls surged in Oct and y-o-y wage gains exceeded inflation: CNBC
US trade deficit with China sets new record in September: MarketWatch
Factory orders in US rose more than expected in September: Reuters
Traders expect volatile week for Treasuries as 10yr yld nears 7yr high: Bloomberg

● Keeping At It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government
By Paul Volcker with Christine Harper
Review via The Atlantic
Paul Volcker’s 6-foot-7-inch frame was draped over a chaise longue when I spoke with him recently in his Upper East Side apartment, in Manhattan. He is in his 91st year and very ill, and he tires easily. But his voice is still gruff, and his brain is still sharp.
We talked about his forthcoming memoir, Keeping at It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government—about why he wrote the book and the lessons he hopes to impart. Volcker is not a vain man, but he knows that his public life was consequential, and he wants posterity to get it right. He also does not mince words. In our conversation, he assailed the “greed and grasping” of the banks and corporate leadership, and the gross skewing of income distribution in America.
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Private payrolls in the US surged 246,000 in October, according to this morning’s update from the Labor Department. The gain, which was well above the consensus forecast, marks a sharp rebound following September’s weak 121,000 rise.
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The projected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) fell to an annualized 4.5% in October, down from 5.0% in the previous month’s outlook. This estimate for GMI (an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes) reflects the ex ante premium over the projected “risk-free” rate for the long run.
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Trump says he had ‘good’ conversation with China’s Xi on trade: CNBC
US will give 8 nations waivers to buy Iranian oil: Bloomberg
US job growth expected to accelerate in today’s Oct report: Reuters
Cook Political Report lifts forecast of Dems’ edge in House race: WashEx
ISM Mfg Index fell to six-month low in Oct: MarketWatch
US Mfg PMI ticks up in Oct, signaling moderate growth: IHS Markit
US job cuts surge in Oct, mostly due to Verizon: 24/7 Wall St
Jobless claims in US fell last week, reaffirming strong labor market: CNBC
US construction spending flat in Sep after sharp rise: MarketWatch.
W. Texas Intermediate crude oil slumped to 7-mo low on Thursday: MarketWatch