The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to rise in August. GMI, an unmanaged, market-value weighted portfolio of the major asset classes, is currently projected to earn an annualized 6.0% (over the “risk-free” rate) in the long run. The estimate is 20 basis points above last month’s forecast.
Continue reading →

A lot can happen over a weekend, including Sunday’s provocative nuclear test by North Korea. Reports that the country is now preparing to launch a new ballistic missile threaten to keep the world on edge this week and beyond.
Continue reading →

The Sep. 3 edition of The US Business Cycle Risk Report has been published and emailed to subscribers.

● Fifty Inventions That Shaped the Modern Economy
By Tim Harford
Q&A with author via Smithsonian.com
Q: So what made you decide to write a book looking at the modern economy through specific inventions?
A: I think it was a slight sense of frustration. I’m an economist, and economics often feels abstract and very impersonal, even though I don’t think it’s abstract or impersonal. As an economics writer, I’m also looking for a way to tell a good story and get some ideas across. I realized if I produced a kind of technological history with lots of ideas and examples I could teach some economics lessons through these very specific stories.
Continue reading →

Companies added 165,000 workers last month, the US Labor Department reports. The gain was modestly below Econoday.com’s consensus forecast. But the year-over-year trend held steady in August, suggesting that the two-year slowdown that began in the first half of 2015 may be stabilizing at a lesser-but-still-healthy growth rate.
Continue reading →

Another month, another bullish tailwind for most of the major asset classes. Nearly every corner of the global markets gained ground in August, led once again by stocks in emerging markets. The only losers last month: US junk bonds and real estate investment trusts (REITs), which posted fractional declines. Otherwise, performance was broadly positive.
Continue reading →

ADP’s stronger-than-expected gain in US private employment for August hints at the possibility that the downshift in the labor market’s annual growth rate over the past two years is steadying. If so, we may see some corroboration in tomorrow’s update on payrolls from the Labor Dept.
Continue reading →

Demand for safe-haven Treasuries kicked into high gear yesterday, which cut the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield down to its lowest level in nearly ten months. What’s driving this key rate down? A combination of factors, ranging from renewed market jitters over the latest missile test by North Korea to concerns that Hurricane Harvey will take a toll on US economic growth to a weak run of inflation in 2017.
Continue reading →

Hurricane Harvey has dealt a devastating blow to the Houston region, which was recently on track to account for 2.4% of the nation’s economy this year. The blowback for the US overall, however, is expected to be mild, more or less leaving the latest estimates for a pickup in economic activity for the third quarter intact, at least for now.
Continue reading →

Global markets posted gains in every broad category last week, based on a set of exchange-traded products. Leading the field higher: stocks in emerging markets, closely followed US real estate investment trusts (REITs).
Continue reading →