The astonishing bull market (bubble?) in Bitcoin has drawn attention to the cryptocurrency from all corners. One of the questions that’s reasonating: Should Bitcoin be treated as an asset class, on par with stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities?
Continue reading
Author Archives: James Picerno
10-Year Treasury Yield Sinks As Futures Price In A Rate Hike
Fed funds futures are pricing in a near certainty of a rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting, although you wouldn’t know it by looking at the 10-year Treasury yield, which has been sinking like a stone in recent weeks.
Continue reading
US Q2 GDP Estimates Continue To Project Stronger Growth
US economic activity for the second quarter is on track to accelerate, according to several estimates. The official GDP report for Q2 is due in late-July, which means that there’s still a fair amount of uncertainty about the outlook for the final set of numbers for the current quarter. For the moment, however, most estimates continue to project a solid rebound following a sluggish 1.2% increase in Q1.
Continue reading
Foreign REITs/Real Estate Top Weekly Performance List
Property shares and real estate investment trusts (REITs) outside the US grabbed the top spot among the major asset classes for the five-trading days through June 2, based on a set of representative exchange-traded products. The gain marks the fifth straight weekly advance for these shares.
Continue reading
Book Bits | 3 June 2017
By Rick Wartzman
Review via Publishers Weekly
Wartzman, a senior advisor at the Drucker Institute, documents the deterioration of company-employee loyalty at some of America’s corporate giants in this insightful economic history. Identifying the “great American dream” as having a “good job”—a dream that’s increasingly precarious—he notes driving for Uber as a perfect example of many jobs in the U.S. today that involve no real, long-term commitment between employer and employee. He cites dismal statistics about many Americans being unprepared for retirement due to low pay, poor pension benefits, and increased medical costs, all while corporate earnings climb to historic highs. In order to understand how this came to pass, he examines four companies—General Electric, General Motors, Kodak, and Coca-Cola—over the past 70 years. He identifies a combination of factors as responsible for weakening the corporate social compact: globalization, company-wide spates of downsizing, ineffective unions, and more. Perhaps most significant is the elevation of shareholders over employees.
Continue reading
US Payrolls Rise Less Than Forecast In May But 1-yr Gain Ticks Up
Employment at US companies increased 147,000 in May (in seasonally adjusted terms), according to this morning’s update from the Labor Department. The rise is below expectations, based on Econoday.com’s consensus forecast for a 173,500 jump in payrolls. The advance also represents a downshift from April’s 173,000 increase. But the softer monthly comparison was offset by a slightly stronger year-over-year change. On balance, today’s release suggests that the labor market remains on track for moderate if unspectacular growth in the near term.
Continue reading
Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 June 2017
The projected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher in May. GMI, an unmanaged market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes, is expected to earn an annualized 5.4% (over the “risk-free” rate) in the long run – 20 basis points above last month’s estimate.
Continue reading
Major Asset Classes | May 2017 | Performance Review
Foreign markets led most of the major asset classes higher in May. The top performer: foreign high-yield bonds. Markit’s Global ex-US High Yield Index popped 3.8% last month (in unhedged US dollar terms), posting its biggest monthly gain in more than a year. The only losers in May: US real estate investment trusts (MSCI REIT) and commodities (Bloomberg Commodity), which fell 0.6% and 1.3%, respectively.
Continue reading
Treasury Yield Curve Continues To Flatten
Bloomberg reports that a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s June 13-14 policy meeting is a “virtual certainty”, based on Fed funds futures. That’s a clue for thinking that the recent flattening of the Treasury yield curve is on track to become even flatter.
Continue reading
The Recession Predictions Keep Coming
If you’re worried about the next recession, you’re not alone. And you never will be.
Continue reading