● ADP Reports Stronger-than-Expected US Feb Payroll Growth | WSJ
● Fed Beige Book: US expansion with varying wage growth | Bloomberg
● US mortgage applications fall 4.8%, despite rate drop | CNBC
● Eurozone retail sales climb for 3rd straight month | MarketWatch
● PMI: Eurozone economic growth at 13-mo low as France contracts | Markit
● PMI: Chinese service sector expands at weaker pace in Feb | Markit

US companies added 214,000 workers to payrolls last month, according to the ADP Employment Report for February. The news offers more support for thinking that the economic expansion is in no immediate danger of sliding into a recession. In fact, today’s numbers inspire a degree of upside revision for the near-term outlook.
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The US Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast has surged in recent days, albeit after reaching unusually low levels last month. Nonetheless, the rollercoaster of revising expectations rolls on, and this time there’s an upside bias bubbling. The spread between the nominal 10-year yield and its inflation-indexed counterpart reached 1.48% yesterday (Mar. 1), based on daily data from Treasury.gov. That’s still a low rate relative to the roughly 1.5%-2.5% range in recent years. But the latest pop marks a sharp increase from mid-February, when the market’s inflation forecast at one point dipped to 1.18%.
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● US ISM Mfg Index ticks up but still indicates contraction in Feb | RTT
● PMI: Weakest rise in US mfg output in Feb since Oc 2013 | Markit
● US construction spending up 1.5% in Jan | AP
● Eurozone Mfg PMI growth falls to 12-mo low in Feb | Markit
● Eurozone unemployment rate falls to 10.3% in Jan–a 4-1/2 yr low | BBC
● Global Mfg PMI signals stagnation in Feb | Markit
● Super Tuesday: Clinton, Trump win big; Cruz takes Tex; Rubio has 1st win | CNN
● Moody’s cuts China outlook, cites reform, fiscal risks | Reuters

The demand for safe assets dominated asset flows in February. The main beneficiary of the risk-off trade last month: foreign government bonds in developed markets. Citigroup’s World Gov’t Bond Index ex-US surged 4.0% in February (unhedged US dollar total return). The gain also pushed this slice of the fixed-income market into first place for the trailing one-year period with a 1.7% increase.
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● US pending home sales hit one-year low | Reuters
● Chicago PMI signals contraction of factory activity in Feb | MarketWatch
● Dallas Fed Index: Mfg Remains in Contraction in Texas | 24/7 Wall St
● Eurozone jobless rate dips to 10.3% in Jan | Reuters
● PMI: Eurozone mfg growth slows to 12-mo low in Feb | Markit
● China’s manufacturing PMI highlights sluggishness | MarketWatch
● Fed’s Dudley: US economic risks have increased | Reuters
● 3 reasons Warren Buffett is optimistic about US economy | CBS MW

Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 197,000 (seasonally adjusted) in February over the previous month in tomorrow’s Wednesday’s update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection reflects a moderately lesser increase vs. January’s gain.
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Managing risk via tactical asset allocation (TAA) offers a number of encouraging paths for limiting the hefty drawdowns that take a toll on buy-and-hold strategies. But what looks good on paper can get ugly in the real world. There’s a relatively easy fix, of course: consider the total number of trades associated with a strategy as another dimension of risk.
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The crowd’s appetite for risky assets extended for a second week, at least in some corners, based on a set of proxy ETFs representing the major asset classes. US junk bonds took the lead for the five trading days through Feb. 26, building on the previous week’s gain. But the revival didn’t include foreign assets from a US-dollar perspective. Other than fractional gains for foreign real estate securities and equities in developed markets, all of last week’s red ink was concentrated in offshore markets via various shades of foreign bonds and emerging-market stocks.
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● US Personal Income & Spending Up More Than Expected In Jan | RTT
● US Q4 GDP revised up due to inventory adjustment | Bloomberg
● US Consumer Sentiment Drops Less Than Initially Estimated In Feb | RTT
● Eurozone CPI inflation goes negative for YoY headline trend in Feb | Bloomberg
● German retail sales up more than expected in Jan | ShareCast
● Shares fall on G20 disappointment, Fed hike worries | Reuters