Bitcoin remains a winning asset since President Trump’s tariff announcement on Apr. 2 — “Liberation Day,” as he called it. In relative and absolute terms vs. the world’s primary markets, the cryptocurrency is outperforming by a wide margin, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (June 6). The US dollar, by comparison, has slumped and is the worst performer.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is up roughly 20% since Apr. 2. That’s well ahead of the second-best performer – foreign stocks in developed markets ex-US (VEA), which has rallied 10%. Gold (GLD) is up roughly 6% while the US dollar (UUP) has shed more than 3% since the US rolled out a dramatic change in its tariff policy on Apr. 2.
US stocks (VTI) are posting a moderate 6.2% increase post-“Liberation Day,” while a portfolio of medium-term US Treasuries (IEF) has slipped 1.2%.
US and China officials are set to meet in London today to discuss disagreements linked to a preliminary agreement announced last month that has cooled trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. Expectations are low for a major breakthrough, although news that both sides are talking will be viewed as a positive for setting the tone in markets this week. The longer-term stakes, however, are high and the outcome is highly uncertain.
The US and China “are locked in an existential battle at the moment,” said Rebecca Harding, chief executive of the Centre for Economic Security, in a CNBC interview today. “It’s much, much more than just about trade and what’s going on in that domain between the two countries. It’s about how they run their economies. This is only just starting and, effectively, it’s a battle for the 21st century.”
How is recession risk evolving? Monitor the outlook with a subscription to:
The US Business Cycle Risk Report