Category Archives: Uncategorized

Will The Fed Keep Inflation Contained?

Inflation has surged recently, raising concern that the US economy faces its biggest threat to pricing stability since the 1970s. The counterargument: inflation is transitory and the recent runup in prices will fade as production bottlenecks linked to the economy’s reopening fade. Even if inflation turns out to be more persistent than some forecasters expect, the Federal Reserve will step in and nip the problem in the bud.

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Macro Briefing: 22 June 2021

* European Union launches antitrust probe into Google’s advertising unit
* Fading gov’t stimulus spending will bring a temporary economic headwind
* No policy change needed for US, at least for now, says NY Fed president
* Is inflation risk starting to recede?
* Bitcoin remains under pressure as China escalates crackdown on cryptocurrency
* Bridgewater’s Dalio: Fed rate hikes will have ‘big, negative effect’ on markets
* Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity confirms US economic growth accelerated in May:

Macro Briefing: 21 June 2021

* Israel’s prime minister warns US to “wake up” before rejoining Iran nuclear deal
* US preparing more sanctions on Russia, says Nat’l Sec. Adviser Jake Sullivan
* Heat wave scorches large swaths of the US West
* US expected to be top destination for foreign investment
* Supply constraints appear set to continue into 2022
* Are stocks vulnerable to a inflation-triggered regime change at the Fed?
* American airlines cancels hundreds of flights due to staffing, maintenance issues
* Bitcoin falls as China intensifies crackdown on cryptocurrency mining
* Yield on US long Treasury bond under pressure amid rethink on reinflation:

US Business Cycle Risk Report: 20 June 2021

Inflation is the main macro focus these days, namely: Is the recent runup in pricing pressure transitory or enduring? The crowd is consumed with the question, but last week’s Federal Reserve meeting reminds that the central bank’s policy decisions still have the power to bring disinflation risk back to the fore.

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Book Bits: 19 June 2021

Shape: The Hidden Geometry of Information, Biology, Strategy, Democracy, and Everything Else
Jordan Ellenberg
Essay by author via The Atlantic
The fact is, binary classifications such as “safe” and “not safe” mostly don’t exist in real life, and those who seek them may well be led astray. No government agency or Anthony Fauci lieutenant ever said you can’t catch the coronavirus from six feet and one inch away—six feet was always an arbitrary “good enough” standard established so that the grocery stores knew how far apart to put the shoe stickers on the floor. But many people nonetheless experienced the recommendation as a sharp-edged boundary: danger within the six-foot circle, safety outside. This kind of all-or-nothing thinking reached its absurd climax in high schools in Billings, Montana, last October. Responding to guidance that coronavirus transmission was a danger when students spent at least 15 minutes within six feet of one another, the schools introduced a new mitigation strategy: Everybody changes desks every 14 minutes.

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Uncertainty In The Spotlight After Fed Meeting

Wednesday’s policy meeting was supposed to be a non-event. The Federal Reserve was widely expected to leave interest rates pinned near zero while the central bank reaffirmed that its view that the recent surge in inflation is temporary. Both forecasts proved to be correct, but the Fed hinted that it is considering raising rates sooner than expected. The news sent markets reeling and analysts reconsidering how vulnerable the economy is to tighter monetary policy.

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Macro Briefing: 18 June 2021

* Affordable Care Act, a.k.a. Obamacare, survives challenge in Supreme Court
* Reflation trades take a hit after Fed hints at hawkish policy shift
* US dollar on track for its best week since last September
* Commodities take a hit on China crackdown and stronger dollar
* US Leading Economic Index continued to increase in May
* Philly Fed Mfg Index continues to reflect solid expansion in June
* US jobless claims post unexpected gain, rising to highest level in a month
* 10yr-2yr Treasury yield curve slips to narrowest spread since early March: