Yields on most assets around the world have edged higher this year. The increase reflects a range of concerns, including sticky inflation risk and greater uncertainty for global trade flows. The crowd, in other words, is demanding a higher yield premium these days, based on a set of ETFs representing the major asset classes.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Macro Briefing: 12 February 2025
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank doesn’t “need to be in a hurry” to cut interest rates. Testifying in the Senate yesterday, told the Banking Committee: “With our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance.” Meanwhile, the policy-sensitive 2-year US Treasury yield ticked up yesterday but remains in a middling range compared with recent history.
US Stock Market Is Middling Performer Amid Global Equities Rally
After two straight calendar years of red-hot performance, American shares are experiencing a run of muted results on the global stage. All the major slices of world stock markets are posting gains so far in 2025, but a notable shift from recent history is a subdued rise in US stocks vs. some its foreign competition, based on a set of ETFs through Monday’s close (Feb. 10).
Macro Briefing: 11 February 2025
Trump announces 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. The US is the world’s largest importer of steel — the top three suppliers: Canada, Brazil and Mexico. The metals are key components in various industries, including transportation, construction and packaging. The levies will take effect on March 4.
Choose Your Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Carefully
Morningstar last week advised that tactical asset allocation funds “failed—again.” That sounds ominous for this class of strategies, but a closer review suggests it’s misguided to pull the plug on the on idea that dynamically adjusting weights of asset classes has crashed and burned. As discussed below, the case for tactical asset allocation (TAA) is quite strong, assuming you’re an informed investor able and willing to separate the wheat from the chaff in this corner of portfolio management.
Macro Briefing: 10 February 2025
US non-farm payrolls rose 143,000 in January, a sharp slowdown from December’s strong increase. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.0% last month — lowest since May. “The weaker January increase masks what may be a firming trend in hiring,” advises a note from TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Co., a wealth manager. “Using a 3-month average of payrolls to reduce the short-term noise suggests the hiring trend appears to be picking up. Note, too, that the 6-month trend turned above the 1-year change in January for the first time since May.”
Book Bits: 08 February 2025
● The Humble Investor: How to find a winning edge in a surprising world
Daniel Rasmussen
Interview with author via Bloomberg
Financial forecasting is a mainstay of finance and economics. Banks use them to analyze how well a company should be doing a few years from now; governments use them to set their budgets. But how often are those prognostications—on which so much depends— actually accurate? Not very often, according to Daniel Rasmussen, founder of Verdad Advisers, author of The Humble Investor: How to Find a Winning Edge in a Surprising World and guest on this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money.
Financials, Health Care Sectors Leading US Stocks Higher In 2025
Genius remains a bull market so far in 2025. All the main sectors in the US equities market are posting year-to-date gains, led by financials and health care, based on a set of ETFs through Thursday’s close (Feb. 6).
Macro Briefing: 07 February 2025
US jobless claims edged up last week, but remain low. The 11,000 increase in new applications for unemployment benefits for the week through Feb. 1 reflects a middling range relative to recent history and near a multi-decade low. The latest report suggests the labor market will continue to expand at a solid pace.
Risk-On Sentiment Endures, Despite Trade Uncertainty
Years ago there was a TV commercial about a kids’ toy called Weebles, which “wobbled but they don’t fall down.” The line comes to mind in reviewing recent market activity. Since returning to the White House last month, President Trump has outlined a wave of policy changes, plans and comments that have roiled markets and shaken expectations about the economic outlook. But for the moment, the latest squalls of volatility have come and gone, leaving an upside trend that’s a bit battered but mostly intact.