The recent slowdown in the outlook for third-quarter growth deepened recently, based on a set of nowcasts. The Oct. 28 release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis is still on track to post a moderate gain, but today’s update for the nowcast reflects a steep downgrade from the previous estimate.
* Fed Chair Powell’s inflation metrics raise doubts about transitory forecast
* US 10-year Treasury yield rises to 1.67% on Tuesday — highest since May
* Has China become uninvestable? Milken conference guests debate the question
* UN report expected to forecast that fossil fuel producers set to ramp up output
* Can carbon-sucking fans help the world reach net-zero emissions?
* Multiple factors driving labor shortage that’s slowing US recovery
* German producer prices increase at fastest annual pace in more than 46 years
* US housing starts fell in September vs. expectations for moderate rise:
Industrial production in US was surprisingly weak in September, falling a hefty 1.3% vs. the previous month – far below Econoday.com’s consensus point forecast for a moderate 0.2% rise. That’s worrisome, but monthly data is noisy and so it’s premature to read too much into one monthly update.
* US Lawmakers focus on tougher regs to curb Big Tech’s influence
* China and Russia naval vessels sail through Japan strait
* North Korea fires ballistic missile on Tuesday
* Energy crunch threatens global recovery as winter approaches
* Is supply-crunch inflation beyond the powers of containing via monetary policy?
* Fed Chair Powell sold more than $1 million of stock as market was tanking
* North America’s largest port remains gridlocked off coast of LA
* China’s property and construction industries contracted in Q3
* Global car output at risk from China’s magnesium shortage
* Bitcoin near record high ahead of debut of futures-based ETF
* WisdomTree commodities ETF (GCC) adds 3% allocation to bitcoin futures
* US homebuilder sentiment continued to rebound in October
* US industrial output fell in September, in part due to supply-chain disruption:
* Dems will focus on finalizing Biden’s massive social spending bill this week
* Inflation poses rising political risk for Biden and Democrats
* World still reliant on fossil fuels amid surge in energy prices
* China’s GDP increased 4.9% year over year in Q3, less than expected
* Energy, real estate shocks are slowing China’s economy, with global implications
* Fallout in China’s property sector looks set to continue
* Investors expect central banks will keep rates too low for too long, survey shows
* NY Fed Mfg Index posts slightly softer growth in Oct amid supply-chain shortages
* US consumer sentiment fell in early Oct to second-lowest level in a decade:
● Trillions: How a Band of Wall Street Renegades Invented the Index Fund and Changed Finance Forever
Interview with author and excerpt via Marketplace.org
The finance industry has historically been adept at inventing new products that line its own pockets more than those of Main Street. The index fund is a rare exception to the rule. At a time when the gap between the haves and have-nots is widening everywhere, the positive impact that an initially much-maligned invention by a motley group of self-described finance industry renegades and heretics can have in the space of a few decades is inspirational. Nonetheless, new technologies — and that is essentially what the index fund is — always have side effects, and not all of them are positive. As index investing has grown, the initially snide comments have been replaced by concern, even fear. Over the past decade, it has become a crescendo. Paul Singer, a famous hedge fund manager, even argues that passive investing has grown into a “blob” that is now “in danger of devouring capitalism.”
- Nearly everything rebounded this week
- Strong across-the-board rallies for all our portfolio benchmarks
Recovery: After six weeks of mostly weak performances, the bulls regained the narrative and drove nearly every slice of our global opportunity set of risk betas higher. The only loser in this week’s trading through today’s close (Friday, Oct. 15): foreign junk bonds (IHY). For details on all the strategies and metrics in the tables, see this summary.
The once-bulletproof argument that investors could do no wrong by owning China stocks has suffered a reversal of fortunes in 2021. Cue up the contrarians, who are wondering if the correction in the country’s equity market this year, in sharp contrast with much of the rest of the world, hints at a buying opportunity.
* President Biden signs bill to lift US debt ceiling through December
* Powell’s prospects for 2nd term at Fed dented but not derailed
* Brent oil futures top $85 a barrel for first time since October 2018
* Microsoft plans to close LinkedIn in China, citing onerous regulations
* United Auto Workers strike at John Deere, first time in 35 years
* US workers appear to be revolting against low pay and underpay
* State-run oil firms filling output gap left by lower production at Western firms
* SEC set to allow first US bitcoin futures fund to start trading
* Prices paid to US producers eased in September
* US jobless claims fell to a new pandemic low last week: