Preliminary estimates of second-quarter US GDP activity suggest output may stabilize after two straight quarters of slower growth, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. This estimate should be viewed cautiously this early in the current quarter, but for now the current data suggest that economic activity may be set to normalize after post-pandemic volatility.
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Macro Briefing: 3 May 2024
* Global economy in 2024 will rise 3.1%, matching 2023’s gain, OECD forecasts
* Global manufacturing activity holds on to slight expansion in April via PMI survey
* US factory orders rose for a second month in March
* US labor costs rose sharply in Q1 as worker productivity growth slowed
* US jobless claims continue to hold at historically low levels:
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 May 2024
The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged higher for a third straight month in April. Today’s revised estimate (based on three models defined below) indicates a 7.0% annualized return for the unmanaged benchmark, which holds all the major asset classes (except cash), according to market weights via a set of ETF proxies. Today’s projection marks a slight increase from the previous month’s outlook.
Macro Briefing: 2 May 2024
* Federal Reserve leaves target rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%
* Inflation, painful adjustment or luck are only solutions to reckless US spending
* ISM Mfg Index slips back into contraction terrain in April
* US job openings continued to decline in March but still relatively high
* US private hiring increases more than forecast in April:
Major Asset Classes | April 2024 | Performance Review
Most of the major asset classes retreated in April. The overall losses mark the worst month for global markets so far in 2024, based on a set of ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 1 May 2024
* US home prices increased again in March, reaching new record high
* Worker pay rose more than forecast in Q1, highlighting sticky inflation
* S. Korea export growth–a global bellwether for trade–accelerated in April
* Major US newspapers sue OpenAI, Microsoft for copyright infringement
* Election year politics are complicating the Fed’s policy decisions
* US consumer confidence index falls in April to lowest level in nearly 2 years:
US Recession Warning Via States Economies Was A False Alarm
The value of modeling recession risk based multiple indicators is a hardy perennial. The latest example comes by way of aggregating trends in the 50 US state economies for estimating the odds that a NBER-defined downturn has started or is imminent. As recently as February this indicator looked ominous. But as the latest updates show, the warning turned out to be noise.
Macro Briefing: 30 April 2024
* Fed expected to show discipline in keeping rates higher for longer
* No rate cuts for US till 2025, predict economists at Macquarie
* Wall Street’s home-buying binge comes under scrutiny of lawmakers
* Is US federal borrowing a key factor that’s keeping inflation high?
* Is China’s stockpiling of commodities a prelude to economic ‘nuclear option’?
* Copper rises to 2-year high on soaring demand for green energy transition:
Momentum Retains Solid Lead For 2024 Equity Factor Returns
The momentum factor is on track to end April as it began: the strongest year-to-date performer among US equity factors, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Apr. 26).
Macro Briefing: 29 April 2024
* Weak US Q1 GDP report masks underlying strength: Wells Fargo
* US Fed meeting this week arrives as summer rate cut expectations fade
* Are wealthy older Americans fueling growth and helping delay rate cuts?
* Higher estimates of neutral rate suggests the days of low interest rates is over
* US consumer spending increased more than forecast in March:
