● The Algebra of Wealth: A Simple Formula for Financial Security
Scott Galloway
Q&A with author via New York magazine
Q: Over the last ten years or so, you had the idea of crypto democratizing finance. Now you have AI democratizing talent, like there’s this hack around wealth and around work.
A: I don’t want to call them get-rich-quick schemes — but the number of people who have made money by buying crypto or buying Nvidia when it was a $10 (now it’s at $800) is small. Even among those few who have managed to do so, a lot give most of it back because they fall under the illusion of thinking it was about skill rather than luck. They double down and start making bigger bets on even riskier assets. The market reminds them in a fairly ugly way that they actually aren’t good. They just got very lucky. I find over the long term, luck is pretty symmetrical. There are people who have made a lot of money in meme stocks; most of them gave it all back because they started conflating luck with talent.

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Yesterday’s first-quarter GDP report delivered a one-two punch for markets: slower-than-expected growth and hotter-than-expected inflation. In reaction, stocks fell and US Treasury yields rose. At first glance, the risk-off response looks reasonable. But a closer look at the GDP numbers still leaves room for debate.

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* High commodity prices are another factor that could delay rate cuts: World Bank
* Pending US home sales rose much more than forecast in March
* Jobless claims in US fall to lowest level in 9 weeks
* US inflation picked up in the first quarter
* US GDP growth slows more than forecast in the first quarter:

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Animal spirits have come off the boil lately, but these are still early days for deciding if risk-on sentiment for equities has hit a wall or is in a holding pattern that allows markets to consolidate the gains of late. The analysis arises from a set of ETFs to gauge the risk appetite, based on prices through yesterday’s close (Apr. 24).

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* Forecasts are mixed for Friday’s PCE inflation data for March
* Mining giant BHP offered to buy rival Anglo American in $39bn mega deal
* Demand for mortgages drops as mortgage rates rise to highest since November
* Solar manufacturers petition US to impose tariffs on Asian imports
* US durable goods orders rose more than expected in March:

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The average 12-month trailing yield for the major asset classes has ticked up so far this year, based on a set of proxy ETFs through yesterday’s close (Apr. 23) vs. early January. Relative to Treasury yields, however, government bonds continue to offer higher payouts.

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* Fed likely to err on hawkish side of fewer rate cuts: Former Fed Vice Chair Clarida
* China may face new wave of bond defaults, predicts S&P Global Ratings
* Ether ETFs unlikely to receive US approval in May: Standard Charter
* New US home sales surged in March despite high mortgage rates
* US economic activity slows to 4-month low in April: PMI survey data:

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The US economy appears on track to post softer growth in the first-quarter GDP report scheduled for release on Thursday (Apr. 25), based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.

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* US considers sanctions targeting some Chinese banks supporting Russia
* US stock market decline has “further to go,” predicts JPMorgan analyst
* Tech sector looks frothy, says head of world’s largest sovereign wealth fund
* Eurozone economy growing again for first time since May 2023: PMI survey
* Risk-parity strategy takes a beating, persuading investors to bail
* US economic growth strengthened in March via Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index:

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In December I wondered if commodities were poised to be the contrarian trade of 2024. Four months later, there’s no competition across the major asset classes: commodities are the upside outlier by a wide margin, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Apr. 19).

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