* Sticky inflation looks set for more confirmation in Friday’s PCE inflation data
* Oil prices fall on Monday as as Iran-Israel tensions ease
* China gold buying is a key reason for the metal’s recent rise
* The cost of owning a home in the US is the highest on record: Redfin
* US 10-year Treasury yield starts trading week near five-month high:
● Growth: A History And A Reckoning
Daniel Susskind
Review via Financial Times
The book starts with a canter through centuries of muddled thinking. Thomas Malthus and his contemporaries thought that growth was inherently unsustainable, as a growing population would eventually run out of resources. Later, development economists at the World Bank sustained a “‘fetish’ for investment”, relying on models that saw physical capital — stuff that people could touch — as key for generating development.
Most recently, there are “degrowthers”, who include the likes of activist Greta Thunberg and anthropologist Jason Hickel. Although their views are (too) often vaguely defined, the basic fear is that more economic growth will gobble up the Earth’s resources, and so policymakers should seek less of it to prevent environmental catastrophe.
Israel’s widely anticipated retaliatory military strike on Iran arrived earlier today, putting markets on edge as investors weigh the implications. The potential for wider conflict hangs in the balance. Early reports, however, hint at the possibility that Israel’s attack is limited in an effort to avoid a wider war with Iran.
* Israel launches a retaliatory strike against Iran
* Two Fed official say there’s no “urgency” to cut interest rates
* Leading Economic Index for US declined in March
* US existing home sales fell in March
* US jobless claims steady, continue to signal strong labor market:
The only aspect of consistency in the market’s outlook for rate cuts lately has been pushing the expected date forward. Recent history falls in line with this trend and September is now seen as the earliest date for policy easing.
Continue reading* Some economists now see rate cuts delayed until March 2025,
* Fed’s Beige Book reports steady economic growth but slim progress on inflation
* ‘Insatiable’ AI demand expected to lift Q2 sales for world’s biggest chipmaker
* Climate change bill may reach $38 trillion a year by 2049, study finds
* US dollar’s dominant reserve currency status likely to endure: Morgan Stanley
Bowing to recent data, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday conceded that inflation progress has stalled and the case for rate cuts has weakened. The Treasury market has been effectively making the same case for weeks, but when the top central banker says it out loud the crowd notices.
* Fed Chair Powell says there’s been a ‘lack of further progress’ on inflation
* US expected to grow at double the rate of G7 peers in 2024, predicts IMF
* Free-market policies are fading around the world, and that worries economists
* US industrial output increased for second month in March
* US housing starts in March fall to slowest pace in seven months:
Yesterday’s sharp slide in US equities has refocused minds on a hardy perennial: the market can and does go down. Obvious, of course, but easy to overlook when prices are rising virtually non-stop, as they have been for much of the past six months—until now.
* Another round of Fed rate hikes is possible, advise UBS strategists
* China’s economy grew faster than expected in Q1, but…
* New home prices in China fall at fastest rate since 2015
* NY Fed Mfg Index continues to indicate contraction in April
* US home builder sentiment steady at modest growth level in April
* US retail sales rose more than forecast in March:
