Predicting is hard, especially about the future, but sometimes it’s a bit easier for financial markets when prices are at extremes. The challenge is defining “extreme.”
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Macro Briefing: 28 July 2023
* US government-shutdown risk may be brewing… again
* US pending home sales index rose in June–first increase since February
* Japan 10yr bond yield jumps to 9yr high as Bank of Japan eases yield control
* German economy posts slight loss in GDP for second quarter
* US jobless claims fell more than expected last week
* Durable goods orders in US rose more than forecast in June
* US GDP posts strong upside surprise, increasing 2.4% in second quarter:
Tech Stocks Still Lead Market By Wide Margin This Year
This year’s rally in US stocks continues to rely heavily on a handful of red-hot sectors, based on a review of ETFs through yesterday’s close (July 26). Shares in technology, communications and consumer discretionary are well ahead of the broad market, providing strong upside support.
Macro Briefing: 27 July 2023
* Federal Reserve raises target interest rate 1/4 point to 22-year high
* Fed’s staff is no longer forecasting US recession, says Powell
* New US home sales fell in June following surge in May
* Regional banks show signs of recovery in Q2 earnings
* Investors avoid US consumer firms especially vulnerable to economic downturn
* Global oil demand on track to reach record high
* Is the Fed done with rate hikes? If so, it may be time to buy bonds:
Moderate US Growth Expected To Persist In Q2 GDP Report
Tomorrow’s initial estimate of US economic activity by the government for the second quarter (scheduled for Thursday, July 27) is expected to report that a moderate expansion continues, based on the median estimate via several sources compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 26 July 2023
* Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates today to 22-year high
* Fed still at risk of doing too little to tame inflation, says SF Fed president
* IMF lifts global growth forecast despite slower momentum in China
* China announces new central bank governor at critical juncture for economy
* US faces “significant” shortage of tech workers in semiconductor industry
* US house prices rise for four months through May but dip vs. year-ago level
* US Consumer Confidence Index rebounds to two-year high in July:
Gold Still Looks Pricey Based On A “Fair Value” Model
The price of the world’s favorite precious metal remains near its upper range of the past three years, but for gold bulls this is disappointing. The surge of inflation in the wake of the pandemic should have by now pushed the price much higher than the current $1962 per ounce, its more zealous supporters complain. But while inflation is, or at least, can be a factor in gold’s price, real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates and the US dollar tend to dominate pricing. By that reasoning, the spike in real rates in recent years explains a lot. No wonder, then, that CapitalSpectator.com’s “fair value” gold model, which uses the greenback and real rates, still advises that the precious metal’s valuation is lofty.
Macro Briefing: 25 July 2023
* Heatwaves around the world likely triggered by climate change, study finds
* Decades of rising global debt levels starts to bite as borrowing costs increase
* US economic boom possible due to productivity boost: head of Yardeni Research
* When will the drop in US personal savings threaten the expansion?
* Federal Reserve expected to lift interest rates tomorrow (Wednesday, July 26)
* Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: US growth remains below trend in June
* US economic momentum slows in July via PMI survey data:
US Stocks Lead Global Markets In 2023 As Various Risks Simmer
American shares remain firmly in the lead for the major asset classes year to date, based on a set of ETF proxies through Friday’s close (July 21). Markets generally are posting solid gains in 2023 but various risk factors will pose a stress test for the bull run in the second half.
Macro Briefing: 24 July 2023
* A “momentous week” ahead for Fed and other central bank
* Fed isn’t set to declare victory on inflation
* Positive Q2 earnings surprises for S&P 500 firms in line with recent averages
* Decade-long rally in US home prices may be ending: Professor Robert Shiller
* Eurozone economy contracts at steepest rate in 8 months in July via PMI survey
* Is the regional banking crisis over? Investors think so:
