US economic growth remains on track to slow in the fourth quarter, but today’s revised analysis still supports a “soft landing” outlook that will keep output strong enough sidestep an NBER-defined recession.
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Macro Briefing: 8 December 2023
* Biden set to veto anti-electric-vehicle bill
* Crude oil prices on track for seventh straight weekly decline
* 2023 is least affordable year for homebuying on record–2024 may be better
* Apple plans to make 1/4 of iPhones in India within several years
* Google rolls out first phase of Gemini, its AI project
* US jobless claims edge up, but remain low by historical standards:
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Is The US Stock Market Set To Break Out Of Its Trading Range?
For much of the past month and a half the S&P 500 Index has rallied, recovering all of the lost ground from the summer/fall correction. The market is currently trading at just below its July high. A decisive rise above this level would strengthen the view that US equities are poised to break free of the trading range that’s prevailed for much of the past two years.
Macro Briefing: 7 December 2023
* House votes to bar Biden emission regulations favoring electric vehicles
* US 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.1%–lowest since early September
* Germany stock market rises to record high
* Moody’s downgrades outlook for 8 Chinese banks
* China says exports rise for first time in seven months
* US private sector jobs rose less than expected in November: ADP
Despite US Resilience, Recessionistas Still Expect Trouble
The US was supposed to be in recession by now, according to numerous forecasts from early in 2023. But the bearish forecasts have fallen flat as output has remained positive. In fact, GDP surged in the third quarter, dealing a body blow to expectations that a downturn was imminent. But rather than admit defeat, the recession forecasters have simply moved forward the expected tipping point.
Macro Briefing: 6 December 2023
* More oil output cuts possible for OPEC+, says Russia
* US will work with other nations to accelerate nuclear fusion viable energy source
* Water consumption in tech is surging to support growing AI use
* Despite market rallies, tax-efficient ETFs set for minimal distributions for 2023
* Global Composite PMI, a GDP proxy, indicates weak growth in November
* US ISM Services Index picks up in November, indicates moderate growth
* US job openings fall in October to lowest level since March 2021:
US Large-Cap Stocks Remain 2023’s Equity Factor Leader
In a mixed year for equity risk factors, several flavors of large-cap shares stand out as this year’s winners, based on a set of ETF proxies through Monday’s close (Dec. 4). Small-cap stocks are on track to trail by a wide margin in relative terms for the calendar year, but the recent rally in this corner is inspiring new forecasts that this slice of equity risk premium is poised to outperform in the new year.
Macro Briefing: 5 December 2023
* A key part of global trade at risk from attacks on vessels in Red Sea
* Moody’s cuts China credit rating to negative due to rising debt risks
* China Services PMI rises to 3-month high in November
* Eurozone Composite PMI contracts for sixth straight month in November
* Uber shares rise on news company will join S&P 500
* War on inflation is a hefty headwind for renewable energy
* US factory orders fell much more than expected in October:
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 4 December 2023
The expected return for the Global Market Index (GMI) held steady in November. Today’s revised, long-run forecast for the benchmark — a market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash) via a set of ETF proxies — is unchanged at a relatively lofty 6.9% ex ante annualized total-return performance, matching last month’s estimate.
Macro Briefing: 4 December 2023
* Talk of rate cuts is ‘premature,’ says Fed Chairman Powell
* Nuclear fusion takes another step toward solution to humanity’s energy needs
* Gold trades at new record high — above $2100/oz.
* Hydrogen offers three big, timely opportunities re: climate change
* Federal Reserve faces growing climate-related protests to alter lending rules
* US construction spending increased more than expected in October
* US ISM Mfg Index contracts for 13th straight month in November
* US is producing crude oil at record levels:
