US retail spending rose for a fifth straight month in October, according to data published by the Chicago Federal Reserve. The estimate tracks retail and food services sales excluding motor vehicles & parts and indicates a 0.4% rise last month, up slightly from a 0.3% gain in September, according to the regional Fed bank. The last two monthly advances also mark softer gains vs. the official retail sales data from the Census Bureau, which published numbers through August before the government shutdown paused updates.

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The government shutdown has ended and new government data will soon start to roll out ahead of the next Federal Reserve policy announcement on Dec. 10. The modest uptick in inflation lately will keep markets guessing, but several estimates of payrolls from private sources in recent days suggest that the case for more easing still has the edge.

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President Trump signed legislation into law that ends longest government shutdown in history. The bill was narrowly passed by the House of Representatives earlier on Wednesday. All but six Democrats voted against the bill while just two Republicans in the House voted against the bill. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the negative impact on the economy will be mostly recovered once the shutdown ends, but not entirely. It estimated the permanent economic loss at about $11 billion for a six-week shutdown.

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There’s no contest going into the final stretch of the year among US equity factor ETFs. So-called high beta stocks – shares with relatively high levels of return volatility – are leading the field by a wide margin, based on a set of ETFs through Tuesday’s close (Nov. 11).

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Global oil and gas demand could rise through 2050, according to a new forecast by the International Energy Agency. The revised outlook contrasts with IEA’s previous estimate of a speedy transition to cleaner fuels. The report notes: “Total global energy demand continues to increase, rising by 2% in 2024 to more than 650 exajoules (EJ). Fossil fuels accounted for nearly four-fifths of total energy demand – a share that has decreased only marginally since 2000.”

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The Wall Street maxim that markets climb a wall of worry seems to apply to the bond market this year. Despite a range of concerns, including tariff-related inflation to government debt, fixed-income securities are posting strong year-to-date gains through Monday’s close (Oct. 10), based on a set of ETFs.

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The Senate votes to reopen government. The deal will extend government funding through January. The bipartisan bill still needs to pass the House and get signed by President Trump before the government can reopen.

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With less than two months to go before the champagne glasses start clinking on Dec. 31, widespread gains continue to dominate the performance ledger for global markets. A lot can happen between now and the New Year’s celebrations – and probably will — but for the moment the appetite for risk is leaning toward a win-win for portfolio strategies in 2025, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Nov. 7).

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US Consumer Sentiment Index falls in November, approaching record low, according to the University of Michigan’s monthly survey. “This month’s decline in sentiment was widespread throughout the population, seen across age, income, and political affiliation,” said a spokesperson for the report. “With the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy.”

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● The Age of Extraction: How Tech Platforms Conquered the Economy and Threaten Our Future Prosperity
Tim Wu
Review via Financial Times
Tim Wu is a titan in the world of competition policy in digital markets. He is a distinguished legal scholar who coined the term net neutrality; the author of two significant books, The Master Switch (2010) and The Attention Merchants (2016), about the accumulation of market power by big tech companies; and was president Joe Biden’s special assistant for technology and competition policy as the administration began to attack the power of the digital giants.
This record of insight, indeed prescience, makes his new book, The Age of Extraction, a must-read. The subtitle says it all — How Tech Platforms Conquered the Economy and Threaten Our Future Prosperity. The analysis of economic dominance is unchanged from his previous books, but the tone now is both urgent and pessimistic.

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