Markets continue to price in high odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next week. The question for Wall Street: Will the delayed consumer inflation report, scheduled for Friday (Oct. 24), play along?
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Macro Briefing: 20 October 2025
US third-quarter GDP is on track to rise 3.9%, based on the Atlanta Fed’s revised nowcast published on Friday (Oct. 17). If correct, the increase will tick above the strong 3.8% increase reported for Q2. The government’s Q3 GDP report is scheduled for Oct. 30, but the release could be delayed if the government shutdown continues.
Book Bits: 18 October 2025
● 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History–and How It Shattered a Nation
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Interview with author via CBS News
After nearly a decade spent studying the most famous stock market crash in history, financial journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin warns that the Wall Street of today echoes the market of 1929, when highs preceded a massive slump, leading to the Great Depression.
Artificial intelligence and technology have contributed to a remarkable boom in recent years. But, Sorkin said, today’s economy is being propped up by the AI boom, and it’s too soon to tell if this is a sugar rush, a short-term and unsustainable boost to the markets. But, Sorkin is positive there’s a crash coming.
“I just can’t tell you when, and I can’t tell you how deep,” he said. “But I can assure you, unfortunately, I wish I wasn’t saying this, we will have a crash.”
Market Premium For 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls To 12-Month Low
The spread for the US 10-year Treasury yield over a “fair value” estimate has narrowed to the smallest gap in a year, based on the average estimate for three models run by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 17 October 2025
US stocks fell on Thursday amid growing concerns about regional bank loans. “Credit quality worries are plaguing Wall Street today as fears mount that there are multiple large lenders with heavy exposure to problematic loans with limited collateral,” said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers. An ETF targeting regional bank stocks (KRE) dropped 6.2% yesterday, closing at the lowest level since August.
High-Beta Stocks Take The Lead For Equity Risk Factors In 2025
A handful of equity risk factors are outperforming the broad stock market this year, and within the elite winner’s circle so-called high-beta shares are leading the field, based on a set of ETFs through Wednesday’s close (Oct. 15).
Macro Briefing: 16 October 2025
US to take control of more companies as counter to China’s dominance in rare earth supplies, which are critical for a range of industries. “When you are facing a nonmarket economy like China, then you have to exercise industrial policy,” Treasury Secretary Bessent said. “So we’re going to set price floors and the forward buying to make sure that this doesn’t happen again and we’re going to do it across a range of industries.” An ETF targeting companies in the rare earth industry fell on Wednesday after trading at a record high the previous day.
Bond Market Continues To Downplay Inflation Risk
If higher tariff-related inflation is a risk, it’s not showing up in the bond market, at least not yet. Yields remain near the lowest levels of the year, suggesting that fixed-income investors aren’t convinced that pricing pressure is a bigger threat vs. slowing economic growth.
Macro Briefing: 15 October 2025
US small business sentiment in September weakened for the first time in three months, according to NFIB. “While most owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having to manage rising inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and ongoing labor market challenges,” said the group’s chief economist.
Geopolitical Risk Sends Rare Earth Stocks Soaring
Geopolitics has been a key risk factor in economic and financial trends this year, including companies engaged in mining and processing of rare earth elements. As tensions rise between the US and China on access to these critical commodities, creating fears of supply chain shocks, stocks in the industry are roaring higher, based on a set of ETFs through Monday’s’ close (Oct. 13).