* Consumer spending will be a key factor for gauging US recession risk
* Markets expect Fed to head off a recession with rate cuts
* US trade deficit narrowed in June as exports outpace imports
* Americans continue to rack up credit card debt, which rose to a new high in Q2
* Sahm Rule-creator doesn’t recommend emergency Fed rate cut
* US stock market (S&P 500) claws back some of the loss after 3-day sell-off:
Category Archives: Uncategorized
US Isn’t In Recession Now, But Downturn Risk May Be Rising
Judging by the current numbers, the US expansion almost certainly endures. There are well-founded concerns that the tide may be turning, but that’s still a speculative call. By comparison, published numbers to date, overall, speak clearly: growth still has the upper hand. That’s not written in stone, of course, but for this specific point in time it’s the odds-on favorite for describing current conditions.
Macro Briefing: 6 August 2024
* Biden convenes national security team amid fears of Iran attack on Israel
* US economy is starting to look “pre-recessionary”: Krugman
* Will the Fed announce an emergency rate cut? Unlikely, predict analysts, history
* ISM Services Index rebounds in July, showing key US sector strengthening
* Global economic growth eases for second month in July via PMI survey data
* US output expands “solidly” in July via Composite PMI Index, a GDP proxy:
Will Global Market Sell-Off Dethrone US Stocks’ 2024 Leadership?
The selling that roiled global markets late last week looks set to continue on Monday. Triggered by weaker-than-expected news for the US labor market, the surge in risk-off sentiment took a bite out of the high-flying market for American shares. But even after last week’s hit, US equities are still leading the major asset classes by a wide margin. In the current climate, however, that premium suggests US shares are still vulnerable to a period of “normalizing” performance comparisons.
Macro Briefing: 5 August 2024
* Does a surprising rise in unemployment signal a recession?
* Economist says Fed waited too long to cut interest rates
* Growth in China’s services activity strengthened in July
* Eurozone economy “stalls” in July via PMI survey data
* US 10-year yield fell sharply last week, settling at 3.79%–lowest since December:
Book Bits: 3 August 2024
● Demography and the Making of the Modern World: Public Policies and Demographic Forces
John Rennie Short
Summary via publisher (Agenda Publishing via Columbia U. Press)
John Rennie Short critically explores the implications of demographic change from a social and economic perspective and considers what this means for public policy. He shows how events as varied and important as the Arab Spring, migration from Africa to Europe, budget negotiations in the United States, and economic growth in India and Brazil – all seemingly diverse issues from around the world – are shaped by forces of demography. Using the demographic transition model as a framework, the book examines the demographic forces that underlie major social and economic issues, and in particular, the range of public policies that have been developed, adopted and rejected to meet these population challenges.
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 02 August 2024
The total return outlook for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in July, marking the first downshift in several months for this forecast. GMI’s long-term estimate now points to an annualized 7.0% performance, down slightly from the previous month, based on the average of three models (defined below). GMI is an unmanaged benchmark that holds all the major asset classes (except cash) according to market weights via a set of ETF proxies.
Macro Briefing: 2 August 2024
* US jobless claims rise to one-high year
* Wage growth in US for Q2 eased to slowest pace in 3-1/2 years
* US light-vehicle sales rebounded modestly in July
* Construction spending in the US fell for second month in June
* ISM Mfg Index dips in July, signaling ongoing sector contraction:
Major Asset Classes | July 2024 | Performance Review
US real estate investment trusts led a widespread rally in July for the major asset classes. The only laggard: commodities, which fell last month. Otherwise, global markets rallied across the broad for the start to the third quarter, based on a set of ETF proxies.
