Initial Guidance | 13 June 2016

Gunmen kills 50 in Orlando shooting—claims to act on behalf of the Islamic State terrorist group. The massacre is the worst mass shooting in US history.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for the US ticked lower in the preliminary reading for June. “Consumers were a bit less optimistic in early June due to increased concerns about future economic prospects,” said Richard Curtin, the economist who oversees the survey. In a note to clients, via Barron’s,Thomas Simons of Jefferies wrote that “the improvement throughout Q2 is very encouraging as it provides more evidence that the weakness in consumer confidence that was in place at the beginning of the year was a temporary phenomenon, similar to other Q1 data releases. The data is also consistent with a number of indicators that suggest Q2 is going to be much better than Q1, overall.
Concern that Britain will vote to leave the European Union next week is weighing on stocks at the start of the trading week, Reuters reports. Brexit fears “spread through global financial markets on Monday, sending Asian and European shares sharply lower and the pound to an eight-week low.”
The recent fall in oil prices was due to falling demand rather than growing supply, the European Central Bank said on Monday. “While most of the oil price decline in 2014 could be explained by the significant increase in the supply of oil, more recently the lower price has reflected weaker global demand,” the ECB advised via MNI. The implication: the fall in energy prices will provide less economic stimulus than previous drops in oil prices.
The hedge fund model is under pressure as big-name investors withdraw money in the wake of poor performance. “Managers are having to negotiate, and investors are demanding much more than they used to in the absence of value,” said Adam Taback, head of global alternative investments at Wells Fargo Investment Institute via The New York Times. “High fees are like an expensive car,” he said. “It is fine as long as you’re getting performance out of it.”