Macro Briefing: 14 July 2022

* A glimmer of hope emerges that Ukraine grain exports can resume
* Fund funds futures estimate high probability for 100-basis-point rate hike
* Fed Beige Book highlights concerns about price increases
* Major US crypto lender Celsius Network files for bankruptcy
* Atlanta Fed business inflation expectations survey is stable at +3.7% for July
* Rents in US rise at fastest pace since 1986
* US headline consumer inflation continues to accelerate for annual rate:

Recession risk rises as markets price in a faster pace of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in the wake of yesterday’s hotter-than-expected consumer inflation data for June. “A faster pace of monetary tightening also means a US recession is more likely than not over the next 12 months, in our view,” advises bond management shop PIMCO. “We’ve already witnessed a rapid deceleration in economic momentum and this loss of momentum has occurred before the Fed’s actions to slow the economy have been fully felt, suggesting that the depth and breadth of an economic contraction could be more pronounced across sectors than previously thought.”

US gasoline prices are falling, but the possibility for a rebound can’t be dismissed. Risk factors include the usual suspects of late: the Ukraine war, limited supply and extreme weather that knocks out refineries. “It’s a nice little reprieve in the middle of the summer, based on more supply and less demand,” says Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at Oil Price Information Service. “But I’m very, very reluctant to say we won’t see $5 gasoline again. A hurricane would be the mother of all monkey wrenches for this more moderate market.”

Europe’s economy remains vulnerable to events linked to Russia’s war on Ukraine. “Risks to the forecast for economic activity and inflation are heavily dependent on the evolution of the war and in particular its implications for gas supply to Europe,” advises a statement from the European Union. “Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to cast a long shadow over Europe and our economy,” says EU Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis.