Macro Briefing: 16 March 2023

* France set for high-stakes vote on unpopular pension reform plan
* South Korea and Japan’s leaders meet for first time since 2011
* Shares of embattled Credit Suisse bank rebound on news of crucial loan
* US home builder sentiment continues to rebound in March
* Did SVB collapse from “wokeness”? No–there’s just no evidence for the claim
* Business inflation expectations rise in March via Atlanta Fed survey
* US Q1 GDP nowcast rises to strong 3.2%, based on Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model
* US wholesale price inflation unexpectedly eases in February
* NY Fed Mfg Index continues to signal weak conditions in the sector
* US retail sales dip in February following January surge:

One-and-done outlook: Fed funds futures reprice probability for rate hikes down. The market’s implied forecast sees a moderate probability for a 25-basis-point hike at the March 22 FOMC meeting. Additional rate hikes at the next two meetings are currently priced as low-probability events.