Macro Briefing: 16 November 2023

* Five key takeaways from Biden-Xi meeting
* US will avoid gov’t shutdown as Senate sends funding bill to Biden
* Wholesale prices in US fell 0.5% in October–biggest drop since April 2020
* NY Fed Mfg Index: regional business activity grew “modestly” in November
* Business inflation expectations steady at 2.5% in November
* US retail sales fell in October–first monthly decline since March:

This week’s consumer inflation report for October is seen as a key turning point in the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame price increases. “More experts began talking about when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, rather than how high it will raise them,” reports Investopedia. “The prospect of a final rate hike is looking pretty slim right now,” advises James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, agrees, writing in a note to clients: “It would now take a horrific CPI report for November, and likely a big rebound in payrolls too, in order to trigger a final hike. Bumps in the road are still likely. But the combination of a full reversal of pandemic-driven supply-side problems, and the likely moderation in demand growth, means that the conditions for sustained disinflation are in place.” Fed funds futures are on board with the outlook, at least for the next policy meeting on December 13, when the central bank is expected to leave its current target rate unchanged:

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.