Macro Briefing: 18 July 2025

US retail sales rebounded in June after two straight monthly declines. “Don’t count the American consumer out yet,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in commentary. “There’s still a lot of trepidation about tariffs and likely price hikes, but consumers are willing to buy if they feel they can get a good deal.”

A top official at the Federal Reserve on Thursday repeated his call for an interest rate cut at the Fed’s policy meeting on July 30. “With inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate,” said Fed Governor Christopher Waller. “I believe it makes sense to cut the (Fed’s) policy rate by 25 basis points two weeks from now.”

US home builder sentiment rose slightly in July, but remains near the lowest level since the pandemic. “The passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act provided a number of important wins for households, home builders and small businesses,” said NAHB chairman. “While this new law should provide economic momentum after a disappointing spring, the housing sector has weakened in 2025 due to poor affordability conditions, particularly from elevated interest rates.”

US import prices rebounded marginally in June, partly due to cheaper energy prices. By contrast, higher costs for consumer goods reflected a tariff-driven increase in inflation.

US jobless claims fell for a fifth straight week, reflecting a resilient job market. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, were little changed at 1.96 million in the previous week that included Independence Day, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.