Macro Briefing: 27 June 2022

* G-7 leaders reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine and…
* Plan new sanctions on Russia including ban on Russian gold imports
* US economy will slow in 2022-23 but “narrowly avoid recession,” IMF predicts
* Russia defaults on its foreign debt for first time since 1918
* Central banks should act decisively to tame inflation, BIS advises
* Prominent crypto hedge fund at risk of default to repay $670 million
* Industrial metals prices set for the worst quarter since 2008 financial crisis
* Revised US consumer sentiment data confirms sharpe slide in June
* New US home sales rose in May — first monthly gain this year:

Will European Central Bank’s pivot to rate hikes to confront inflation shock create bond crisis for currency bloc? “The ECB is in great difficulty,” says Charles Goodhart, a former Bank of England policy maker. “They can’t normalize very rapidly — loading increases in interest rates up front — without dealing with the fragmentation issue.”

US may avoid a formal recession, “but underlying growth is likely to weaken significantly on the back of a jump in interest rates,” predicts ABN Amro analyst Bill Diviney, senior US economist at the bank. “This is likely to raise the unemployment rate by 1.5pp by the end of 2023, helping to cool inflation.”