Macro Briefing: 30 August 2022

* Violence rocks Iraq’s Green Zone amid violent protests
* Ukraine says new offensive in south is breaking through Russian defences
* France says Russia using energy supply as “a weapon of war”
* Pakistan’s planning minister says country’s floods will cost $10 billion
* US and China announce deal to avoid mass delistings of China stocks from US
* China bank scandal widens as hundreds are arrested
* Russia is raking in more money than ever from selling crude oil
* Global sea levels expected to rise nearly a foot due to Greenland ice losses
* Mortgage lender bankruptcies are rising
* Eurozone economic sentiment falls in August to 18-month low
* 3mo/10yr US Treasury yield stays positive — just barely:

Falling money supply will trigger a recession in 2023, predicts Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University. “We will have a recession because we’ve had five months of zero M2 growth, money supply growth, and the Fed isn’t even looking at it.”

Fed funds futures pricing in 69% probability of another 75-basis-points rate hike at the Sep. 21 FOMC meeting:

Expecting the Fed to pause or reverse rate hikes after a significant fall in prices? Think again, says Thomas Hoenig, former Kansas City Fed president. He predicts that once the Fed funds rate (currently at 2.25%-2.50%) rises to 4%, “I don’t think they’ll back off very quickly.”