Macro Briefing: 30 May 2023

* Biden and McCarthy look for votes to pass debt-ceiling bill
* Debt-ceiling deal, if passed, will be a new headwind for US economy
* Moscow attacked by drones as Russia bombs Ukraine capital for third day
* Nato troops injured in clashes with Serbs in Kosovo
* Biden and newly re-elected Turkish President talk F-16s, Sweden’s NATO bid
* N. Korea says it will launch satellites for real-time monitoring of US and allies
* China’s fading recovery highlights long-building economic risks
* Markets are downgrading expectations that a pause in rate hikes is near
* Small-cap stocks appear to be pricing in a recession:

A divide between mainstream investors and quants may explain why the stock market has been relatively calm despite the debt-ceiling threat and other risks. The Wall Street Journal reports: “A key reason: a growing divide between mainstream investors, who have largely been sitting out the 2023 stock rally, and the machines whose buying has been driving it.”