Macro Briefing: 6 May 2024

* Hard-landing risk for US economy is rising again, predicts Citi economist
* Eurozone business activity expands at fastest pace in almost a year
* China is a key factor in gold’s rally
* AI could fuel a spike in demand for natural gas, advises Wells Fargo
* US economy appears to be cooling as hiring slows more than expected in April:

The softer-than-expected rise in US payrolls for April has revived expectations for rate cuts this year. “At last there is evidence of some weakness in the US jobs market,” says Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors. “Rate cuts will move back up the agenda as a result and there is little doubt that markets will take this as good news.” Fed funds futures this morning are pricing in moderately high odds for the first rate cut at the Sep. 13 FOMC meeting:

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