* Some House members flirt with possibility of a US government shutdown
* US firms complain China is ‘uninvestable’, says US commerce secretary
* Peak China may be shaping up to be a key challenge for US
* Home prices in US rose for fifth straight month in June
* US court clears path for first US-listed spot bitcoin ETF
* US Consumer Confidence Index declined in August after two month gains
* US job openings fall in June to lowest level since March 2021:
Last week I briefly profiled the earnings yield as a tool for estimating the US stock market’s equity risk premium, the return on stocks over a “risk-free” rate. For comparison, let’s add the dividend yield model (DYM) in today’s update.
* US and China agree to take steps to ease trade tensions
* China vows to speed up fiscal spending to support slowing economy
* Is geothermal the next big thing for US energy?
* German economy appears to be sliding into stagnation
* Goldman Sachs sells investment advisory business to Creative Planning
* Texas mfg production activity in Aug contracts at deepest level in 3 years:
After three straight weekly declines, the Global Market Index (GMI) rebounded for the trading week through Friday, Aug. 25. This unmanaged benchmark holds all the major asset classes (except cash) in market-value weights via ETFs and represents a competitive measure for multi-asset-class-portfolio strategies.
* Inflation “remains too high,” says Fed Chairman Powell
* World’s central bankers unsure if rates high enough to tame inflation
* Fallout from China slowdown is probably limited for US economy
* Shares in Evergrande (crisis-hit Chinese developer) crash as trading resumes
* US government shutdown risk for autumn appears to rising
* US home prices have bottomed and will rebound in 2024, predicts Zillow
* Inflation and jobs are in focus for this week’s US economic updates
* Rally in US large-cap growth stocks looks overbought, says RBC analyst:
Yasheng Huang
Review via The Wall Street Journal
In the past few years, Yasheng Huang has found himself becoming disenchanted as a scholar, tired of the shackles placed on him by academic journals. Their excessive specialization has led, he complains, to a “suboptimal supply of big ideas.” So he set out to liberate himself from refereed publications and write a sweeping and “self-consciously ambitious” book about his native China. The riveting result is “The Rise and Fall of the EAST,” whose last word isn’t a reference to the Orient but is, instead, an acronym—for Exams, Autocracy, Stability and Technology—the interplay of which has shaped China for nearly 1,500 years.
US economic growth in the first half of the year appears on track to continue in the third quarter, based on the median estimate via several sources that are aggregated by CapitalSpectator.com.
* Will Fed Chair Powell’s speech today mark a shift for monetary policy?
* Fed officials offer mixed views on case for more rate hikes
* US headline durable goods orders fall in July as business equipment orders rise
* German business sentiment drops for fourth straight month in August
* US jobless claims edge lower, continue to reflect solid labor market
* Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model lifts US Q3 growth to red-hot +5.9% nowcast
* US economic growth recovers in July via Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index:
Betting against large-cap stocks and its growth component remains a tough sell so far this year, based on a set of ETF equity risk factor proxies through Wednesday’s close (Aug. 23). Although most slices of the US equity market’s risk factors are posting gains, the biggest companies that are considered growth stocks are doing the heavy lifting.
* Fed’s Powell set to give key speech on Friday at Jackson Hole summit
* Faltering consumer confidence at core of China’s economic slowdown
* BRICS group invites six nations to join, including Saudi Arabia and Iran
* New US home sales rise to 17-month high in July
* Nvidia earnings soar as AI-fueled demand for its chips drives sales higher
* US business activity slows to a crawl in August via PMI survey data:
