* Biden issues executive order to steer some US investments away from China
* China rebukes Biden’s executive order that limits US investment in technology
* Downturn in world trade fuels concern of increasingly fractured global economy
* Central banks need to keep rates at roughly 5%, veteran economist predicts
* Average US mortgage rate rises to 7.02% — highest in almost 21 years
* Five bearish arguments that, so far, “haven’t worked”
* US Q3 GDP nowcast revised up to strong 4.1% via Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model:
Markets Continue To Signal A Risk-On Bias Prevails
The recent rally in risk assets has confounded some analysts, but right or wrong the revival in animal spirits still has momentum, based on several proxies of market behavior via ETF pairs through yesterday’s close (Aug. 8).
Macro Briefing: 9 August 2023
* US set to ban some private-equity and venture-capital investments in China
* Moody’s says it may cut credit ratings for six big US banks
* Economists expect another month of slowing inflation in July
* S&P will end ranking companies’ environmental, social and governance risks
* US trade deficit narrows in June via pullback in imports
* China consumer inflation turns negative in July for first time since 2020:
Markets See End Of Rate Hikes As Fed Officials Suggest Otherwise
Investors continue to price in high odds that the Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes are history after last month’s ¼-point increase. But the latest comments by several central bank officials tell a different story. Adding to the uncertainty: mixed expectations for Thursday’s release (Aug. 10) of July data on US consumer inflation.
Macro Briefing: 8 August 2023
* China exports drop the most in over 3 years in July
* NY Fed president expects interest rates will remain restrictive for some time
* World reaches crucial global warming threshold in July for temperature
* Climate change may threaten credit ratings for countries, study finds
* Moody’s cut credit ratings for several small to mid-sized US banks
* New lending by mortgage REITs falls sharply
* US small business confidence edges up to eight-month high in July:
US Stocks Still Lead Global Markets In 2023 By Wide Margin
Markets around the world took a hit last week, but American shares are still the clear performance leader for the major asset classes year to date, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Aug. 4).
Macro Briefing: 7 August 2023
* Fed Governor Bowman says more rate hikes are “likely” to tame inflation
* JPMorgan abandons US recession forecast despite “very elevated” risks
* Saudi Arabian oil giant Aramco reports big drop in profits due to lower oil prices
* US payrolls rose less than forecast in July
* US scientists repeat net energy gain with nuclear fusion test
* Trucking firm Yellow files for bankruptcy after shutting down business
* China’s local government financing vehicles showing more signs of stress
* US stock market is fairly valued, estimates Morningstar:
Book Bits: 5 August 2023
● How to Make a Killing: Blood, Death and Dollars in American Medicine
Tom Mueller
Review via Kirkus Reviews
A dispiriting look at the replacement of the Hippocratic oath by a PIN number that centers on the big business of kidney dialysis. Basing his account on interviews with hundreds of constituents of the “dialysis community,” journalist Mueller, author of Extra Virginity and Crisis of Conscience, describes a health care industry that is seemingly entirely focused on profit. Most dialysis takes place at clinics where a premium is placed on getting patients in and out quickly, with the withdrawal and reinsertion of blood occurring more rapidly than the body can comfortably accommodate—even though in many instances, “when administered this way, dialysis may shorten patients’ lives by stripping off bodily fluids too fast, triggering sudden drops in blood pressure that can damage the heart, brain, gut, and lungs and lead to stroke, congestive heart failure, and cardiac arrest.” If you complain, you’re likely to be denied care—and, worse, far too many nephrologists are disinclined to fight on behalf of their patients. One nephrologist recounts that a colleague told her he had developed “techniques for goading undesirable patients into acting out, in order to eject them from his facility.”
First Line Of Defense For Assessing Investment Strategy Backtests
There are three basic ways to test an investment strategy. Each has its own unique set of pros and cons, but only one is practical.
Macro Briefing: 4 August 2023
* Global economic growth eases in July to slowest pace since January
* Saudi Arabia will extend oil production cuts into September
* ISM Services Index eases in July, indicator modest growth for sector
* US jobless claims tick up but remain near lowest levels of 2023
* US factory orders surge in June, rising for fourth straight month: