Macro Briefing: 8 August 2023

* China exports drop the most in over 3 years in July
* NY Fed president expects interest rates will remain restrictive for some time
* World reaches crucial global warming threshold in July for temperature
* Climate change may threaten credit ratings for countries, study finds
* Moody’s cut credit ratings for several small to mid-sized US banks
* New lending by mortgage REITs falls sharply
* US small business confidence edges up to eight-month high in July:

Rising mortgage delinquencies for multifamily real estate are starting to ring warning bells, analysts tell The Wall Street Journal. “Apartment landlords face a ‘hydrogen-bomb scenario,’ says Peter Sotoloff, a veteran real-estate finance executive, a former founding member of Blackstone’s property debt business and former managing partner at Mack Real Estate Credit Strategies.” Sotoloff notes that “Everyone is focused on office,” but the risk of apartment defaults “is a really big issue that is not getting the attention it deserves.”