* US cities prepare for surge of migrants after change of immigration rules
* House passes bill to restrict flow of immigrants into US
* Fed’s Bowman says more rate hikes needed if inflation, job market stay strong
* Debt ceiling meeting between Biden and congressional leaders postponed
* Uncertainty persists about exactly when Treasury will run out of cash
* Regional bank stock remain volatile as PacWest Bancorp shares sink
* Corporate bond market may offer opportunity in debt-ceiling crisis
* US wholesale inflation continues to ease in April
* US jobless claims rise to 1-1/2 year high:

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The wide spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and CapitalSpectator.com’s lesser fair-value estimate continues to narrow, albeit slowly. As outlined on these pages in recent months, the model continues to project a lower market rate ahead. Timing is unknown, but today’s revised analytics reaffirm the forecast. Continue reading →

* Yellen doubts Biden administration can avoid default without Congress
* Migrant influx to US from Mexico surges as pandemic-era law ends
* China and US debt-ceiling risk expected to dominate G7 finance meeting
* Republican-led states move to falls to near-zero pace, slowest in two years
* SoftBank suffers record $32 billion loss for its Vision Fund
* US consumer inflation ticked down to 4.9% annual rate in April:

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The world’s favorite precious metal is enjoying a moment in the sun lately. Trading at record highs recently, gold’s allure is back in vogue as various macro risk factors provide a tailwind. Continue reading →

* Biden describes debt-ceiling talks with Republican leaders as “productive”
* Debt-ceiling deal remains elusive, but leaders will meet again Friday
* Americans lack confidence in key US economic leaders, survey finds
* Cryptocurrency exchange Bittrex files for bankruptcy
* New listings for US home sales fell 21% in April vs. year-ago level
* OpenAi tops CNBC’s list of top-50 firms as 2023 disrupters
* US small business sentiment slips in April to lowest level in a decade:

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* Biden and McCarthy will meet today to discuss debt ceiling
* Wall Street plans for trouble if there’s a US default re: the debt ceiling
* Fed warns of credit crunch in wake of recent bank turmoil
* China exports rose 8.5% in April, beating expectations, but…
* China imports fell sharply in April, suggesting economic growth is weak
* US inflation expected to remain well above Fed target in April data
* Gold holds above $2000 an ounce ahead of Wednesday’s US inflation data
* US consumer inflation expectations fall in April for year-ahead outlook
* Bank lending standards remained tight in Q2, loan officer survey shows:

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Fixed-income markets ex-US led performances during a mixed week for the major asset classes through the close of trading on Friday, May 5, based on a set of ETFs.

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* “Economic chaos” awaits if Congress doesn’t raise debt ceiling
* Time is running short for Biden-McCarthy debt-ceiling talks
* China increases its gold reserves for a sixth straight month
* US payrolls rose more than expected in April
* US economic activity appears to be stabilizing at slow growth pace:

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● The Little Book of Picking Top Stocks: How to Spot the Hidden Gems
Martin S. Fridson
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
How well does it pay to own the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s best-performing stock of the year? Over the 2012-2021 period, the one-year total return ranged from 80% to 743%. This book identifies the quantitative and qualitative traits of stocks that made it to #1 and tells the stories of how they got there. A key indicator, the Fridson-Lee Statistic, makes its debut in these pages. Aiming for the massive upside of the #1 stocks entails substantial risk. It’s not something to do with more than a small percentage of your portfolio. But attempting to pick the coming year’s top performer can provide an outlet for speculative impulses that might otherwise spoil a prudent, long-term investment plan. And by investigating the statistically determined best candidates for #1, you’ll gain important insights into stock selection.

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Trailing yields have increased for most of the major asset classes recently, based on a set of ETF proxies. The question is whether the relatively high payout rates offset concerns for the possibility of capital losses in the near term?

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