* Congress has no plan to avoid a government shutdown on Nov. 17
* Powell says Fed ‘not confident’ it has done enough to tame inflation
* Global trade data suggests worst of downturn has passed
* Int’l diversification is worth a new look after a strong run for US markets
* China’s ICBC, world’s biggest bank, hit by cyberware attack
* US jobless claims tick down, holding near multi-decade low:
A review of market trends in early September suggested that the recent correction didn’t trigger a clear risk-off signal. Two months later, not much has changed, based on several ETF pairs that are proxies for various aspects of market sentiment via prices through yesterday’s close (Nov. 8). Markets are churning as various threats raise questions about the path ahead, but for the moment it’s still not obvious that investors are throwing in the towel on risk assets.
* US airstrike on site in Syria
* US and China finance ministers lay groundwork for Biden-Xi meeting
* China consumer prices fell in October, highlighting risk of deflation
* Will falling Treasury yields keep the Fed hawkish?
* US mortgage rates post biggest one-week drop in over a year
* US crude oil price continues to fall, trading at lowest since July:
The red-hot economic growth in the third quarter remains on track to decelerate sharply in the final three months of the year, based on the median nowcast via a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
* Banks report tighter lending standards
* IMF raises China GDP forecast for 2023 to +5.4%
* 20% of US offices vacant and WeWork bankruptcy won’t help
* If declining inflation continues, slide will be fastest in a century: Fed’s Goolsbee
* Why did so many economists fail to anticipate the recent disinflation?
* US crude oil prices fall below $78 a barrel–lowest since July
* US trade deficit deepened for first time in 3 months in September
* US credit card balances surged year over year in Q3:
The third-quarter GDP report surprised most economists with a blow-out 4.9% gain. Is a downside reversal brewing for Q4?
* Israel to maintain security control in Gaza ‘indefinitely’: Netanyahu
* “Stock market’s correction is over,” advises Ed Yardeni at Yardeni Research
* Fed has more work to do to control inflation: Fed’s Kashkari
* China reports its first-ever foreign investment deficit in Q3
* South Korea bans short selling until June 2024
* US natural gas prices drops sharply on surging supply, mild weather
* Global economic activity stalls in October via global GDP proxy:
Last week’s news that the Federal Reserve left interest rates steady, followed by a slower-than-expected rise in payrolls in October, revived animal spirits. Now comes the hard part: Was it noise, or does Friday’s broad-based rally signal a turning point in favor of the bulls?
* The price of money (natural rate of interest) is rising, and only due to Fed
* Qatar and China sign 27-year deal for liquefied natural gas
* Big Tech’s outlook for Q4 dims after strong Q3 results
* Eurozone economy contracts in October at fastest pace in almost 3 years
* Are cheap valuations for small caps signaling a buying opportunity?
* Berkshire Hathaway reports 40% rise in operating earnings
* US private payrolls decelerating faster than total payrolls (including govt):
Homi Kharas
Interview with author via McKinsey Global Institute podcast
Q: In your new book, you highlight the fact that we’ve now reached the point at which half the world’s population is middle class or richer. Four billion people, and by 2030, that could be five billion. So what’s driven that enormous growth, and what could continue to drive it?
A: I think the simplest answer I can give is technology. It was technology that started the emergence of the middle class in the 19th century when it became clear that literate clerks were needed to write contracts between banks and factory owners so the latter could expand. The technology of the Industrial Revolution drove the need for a healthy, educated population. And that drove a demand for teachers, doctors, nurses. Productivity started to rise, and that brought about a rise in wages.
