Just when you thought it was safe to assume that the soft-landing fix was in, the bond market has thrown a wrench into the machine. So it goes with the constantly shape-shifting risk profile for the US business cycle. Most of the time the changes are relatively trivial. Is this time different?
Macro Briefing: 5 October 2023
* Hard landing risk for US economy rising as Treasury yields increase
* Rise in interest rates creates bigger challenge for managing deficits
* A stock market crash may be the only savior for a falling bond market: Barclays
* Earth on track for hottest year on record, predicts European climate agency
* ISM Mfg Index edged lower in September but still reflects moderate growth
* US private employment growth slowed sharply in September via ADP data:
US Median Q3 GDP Nowcast Holds Above 3%
Rising interest rates may threaten the “soft landing” outlook for the US economy, but the upcoming preliminary estimate of third-quarter GDP from the government still looks set to report that output picked up from Q2.
Macro Briefing: 4 October 2023
* Republicans remove House speaker, leaving chamber in chaos
* Rising Treasury yields threaten ‘soft landing’ scenario for US economy
* Two Fed officials say interest rates will likely stay high
* US auto sales rose in Q3 despite strikes and higher interest rates
* ‘Stalling and divergent’ global economy expected, UN trade division predicts
* Saudi Arabia says its oil production cuts will last through end of year
* US job openings post unexpected gain in August:
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 3 October 2023
The expected return for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to edge higher in September from the previous month. Today’s revised long-run forecast for this benchmark — a market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash) via a set of ETF proxies — inched up to an annualized 6.7% return, the highest so far this year.
Macro Briefing: 3 October 2023
* OPEC leader: “resilient” demand and low investment could keep oil prices high
* United Auto Workers union reaches tentative deal on contract with Mack Trucks
* Office market headed for crash in US, investor survey says
* Office attendance in big cities still half of pre-pandemic level
* Construction spending in US increased for eighth straight month in August
* US ISM Manufacturing Index edges higher again in September, close to neutral:
Major Asset Classes | September 2023 | Performance Review
Commodities and cash continued to top the monthly performance tables in September for the major asset classes. Also on display for a second straight month: widespread losses elsewhere for global markets, based on a set of ETF proxies.
Macro Briefing: 2 October 2023
* AI boom expected to “dramatically increase” energy consumption
* Sluggish China and global demand cuts Asia growth outlook: World Bank
* China’s demand for commodities growing at “robust rates”: Goldman Sachs
* US 10-year Treasury yield starts week near 15-year high
* China’s factory recover slows in September
* Automakers’ strike expands to 17% of UAW members at Big Three firms
* Fed’s favorite inflation gauge rose less than expected in August
* US consumer spending increased for fifth straight month in August:
Book Bits: 30 September 2023
Brian Merchant
Review via San Francisco Chronicle
In today’s tech-obsessed world, the Luddites, 19th century British worker rebels known for smashing the machines made to replace them, are considered hammer-wielding, anti-progress primitives who we’d do well to leave in the dustbin of history. But according to Los Angeles Times tech columnist Brian Merchant, that popular conception is dead wrong. In his new book, “Blood in the Machine: The Origins of the Rebellion Against Big Tech,” Merchant zooms in on the misunderstood movement to show us that those machine-smashing rebels were anything but ignorant — in reality, they were grappling with the same questions about automation and labor that we are now.
Surprise, Surprise: US Crude Oil Production Is Surging
We may be toiling in the post-truth age, but here at CapitalSpectator.com we stubbornly remain stuck in old-school habits and favor hard data over the rising preference in some circles for creatively reframing facts.