Oil prices are climbing again and are approaching the highs reached during the early stages of the Iran conflict. The latest advance reflects growing concerns about renewed conflict in the Middle East, fueled by reports that the U.S. and Israel may resume military action against Iran after the midterm elections. Regardless of the trigger, a breakout to new highs in oil would be an unwelcome development for financial markets at a time when inflation risks remain elevated.
Monthly Archives: October 2026
Housing Is Weak, but Its Impact on the Business Cycle Is Muted
There was a time when economists argued that housing was not only a key component of the economy, but also the primary driver of the business cycle. That relationship appears far more tenuous these days, and for now that’s good news given the weakness in residential construction and home buying.
Energy Stocks Lead This Year, But Tech Still Drives the S&P 500
The US stock market is on track for a fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains, but the sector leading the performance race is not necessarily driving the market. Energy stocks have been the standout performers in 2026, soaring far ahead of every other sector, including technology. Yet tech remains the primary force behind the S&P 500’s advance because it carries a much larger weight than energy in the market-cap-weighted index.
GDP Nowcasts Point to Faster Growth as Inflation Risks Mount
For anyone expecting that slower US economic growth will help cool inflation in the near term, the latest nowcasts for next week’s third-quarter GDP report offer little support.
Book Bits: 17 October 2026
● The Invisible Hand of Maria Edgeworth: How a Nineteenth-Century Novelist Taught the World Economics
Jeanna Smialek
Interview with author via Marketplace
You may have learned in grade school that Adam Smith originated many of the ideas behind modern economics in his book “The Wealth of Nations.” Maybe you’ve also heard about Thomas Robert Malthus or John Maynard Keynes, economists who are also remembered for their contributions to the field. But chances are, you probably haven’t heard of Maria Edgeworth — at least not for her contribution to economics.
Edgeworth was a Regency-era novelist who, at one point, was England’s most popular writer.
“Jane Austen was a Maria Edgeworth fangirl,” said Jeanna Smialek, Brussels bureau chief at The New York Times. “She’s obsessed with Maria Edgeworth and is sending her letters and being like, ‘please review my books.’’’
But Smialek also found that Edgeworth was deeply engaged in economics, corresponding with peers like David Ricardo and Thomas Malthus, and working the ideas from Adam Smith into her novels.
The Case for Another Rate Hike Is Growing Stronger
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh reaffirmed his vow to “deliver price stability” in a speech on Friday, a day after a second inflation report in as many days highlighted the growing challenge to achieving that goal in the near term.
Inflation Concerns Push 10-Year Yield Further Above Fair Value
The yield premium on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note continued to rise in September, driven by concerns over inflation and government debt. The benchmark yield climbed sharply last month, pushing the spread between the market rate and The Capital Spectator’s estimate of fair value to its widest level in nearly two years.
Global Diversification Pays Off as US Bonds Struggle
It’s been a rough year for the US bond market, but diversifying into international fixed income has helped ease the pain.
Stocks Keep Climbing, but Market Leadership May Be Shifting
The US stock market has defied the bears for much of the year, powering through geopolitical shocks and inflation threats. As investors look toward year-end and beyond, attention is shifting to whether the rally can extend its gains and which corners of the equity market are best positioned to lead.
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A New Middle East Flashpoint Raises the Stakes for Inflation
The battle to tame inflation is expected to suffer another setback in Wednesday’s consumer inflation report for September. Higher energy costs are a key factor, and the escalating conflict in the Middle East suggests that near-term relief is unlikely.