American shares rallied for a second week, leading an uneven trading week for the major asset classes through Friday’s close (Feb. 3), based on a set of ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 6 February 2023
* China calls for calm after US shoots down suspected spy balloon
* Powerful earthquake kills 1,300 people in Turkey and Syria
* Has a new cycle of growth started for the US economy?
* Global green trade and subsidy war is accelerating
* China’s reopening will boost global growth this year
* Dell announces layoffs in latest round of cuts in tech industry
* Speculative stocks are leading the stock market’s rally this year
* US payrolls blindsides economists, partly due to seasonal adjustment
* Fed funds funds futures pricing in higher odds of two more 1/4-point rate hikes:
Book Bits: 4 February 2023
Martin Wolf
Review via The Economist
For anyone old enough to remember the fall of communism, recent history has been something of a shock. The triumph of liberal political and economic systems has been spoilt: by rich-country blunders, the rise of authoritarian China, and ultimately by a distressing loss of faith in democracy itself in what was once called the free world. This crisis of democracy looks less dire than it did a year or two ago, thanks to political change in America and missteps by China and Russia. But the danger has not passed, and the need to understand democracy’s retreat remains urgent.
Treasury Market Predicts Fed Rate Hikes Are Done
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again this week and Chairman Jerome Powell says more hikes are coming. The bond market disagrees.
Macro Briefing: 3 February 2023
* Pentagon says Chinese spy balloon spotted over Montana
* China business activity expands in January–first rise in five months
* Eurozone economy grows in January for first time since June
* US mortgage rates decline for fourth straight week
* Worker productivity in US increases faster than expected in Q4
* Austerity is the new new thing for the tech industry
* New orders for US-manufactured goods rebound sharply in December
* US jobless claims edge down last week, holding near record low, but…
* Announced job cuts rose above 100,000 in January–highest in over 2 years:
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 February 2023
The long-run performance outlook for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher in January, reaching an 6% annualized forecast, based on the average estimate for three models (defined below). Today’s estimate remains in line with the trailing 10-year return for GMI, an unmanaged, market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash).
Macro Briefing: 2 February 2023
* Ukraine says Russia preparing for ‘maximum escalation’ in the war
* US increases military presence in Philippines to strengthen Asia influence
* Biden and McCarthy meet to discuss debt ceiling but no agreement announced
* Global manufacturing contraction shows signs of easing in January
* US job openings post surprising gain in December
* Construction spending for US is surprisingly weak in December
* US manufacturing activity continues sinking in January via ISM survey data
* Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 1/4 point as…
* Fed’s Powell says central bank not done lifting rates yet
* US hiring at companies slows sharply in January, ADP reports:
Major Asset Classes | January 2023 | Performance Review
Global markets roared back to life in January, led by US real estate shares. The only slice of the major asset classes that lost ground last month: commodities, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 1 February 2023
* Federal Reserve expected to slow rate hiking today to 1/4 point
* Fed’s Powell may stress today that inflation fight is far from over
* China’s manufacturing contraction eases in January via PMI survey data
* Eurozone manufacturing contraction eases, suggesting worst has passed
* Eurozone inflation slows for third straight month in January
* Key employment cost index for US rose less than forecast in Q4
* US consumer confidence eased in January but above 2022’s low
* Chicago PMI falls more than forecast in January, indicating deeper contraction
* US home price growth cools gain in November, extending run of softer pricing:
Deep-Value ETF Report: 31 January 2023
The energy sector has been red hot for much of the past year, but there are still pockets in this corner that remain battered, at least in relative terms. Notably, oil and gas equipment stocks remain deep in the red in absolute and relative terms, based on relative rankings for a set of 145 ETFs that cover the waterfront for the major asset classes.