The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again this week and Chairman Jerome Powell says more hikes are coming. The bond market disagrees.
Macro Briefing: 3 February 2023
* Pentagon says Chinese spy balloon spotted over Montana
* China business activity expands in January–first rise in five months
* Eurozone economy grows in January for first time since June
* US mortgage rates decline for fourth straight week
* Worker productivity in US increases faster than expected in Q4
* Austerity is the new new thing for the tech industry
* New orders for US-manufactured goods rebound sharply in December
* US jobless claims edge down last week, holding near record low, but…
* Announced job cuts rose above 100,000 in January–highest in over 2 years:
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 February 2023
The long-run performance outlook for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher in January, reaching an 6% annualized forecast, based on the average estimate for three models (defined below). Today’s estimate remains in line with the trailing 10-year return for GMI, an unmanaged, market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash).
Macro Briefing: 2 February 2023
* Ukraine says Russia preparing for ‘maximum escalation’ in the war
* US increases military presence in Philippines to strengthen Asia influence
* Biden and McCarthy meet to discuss debt ceiling but no agreement announced
* Global manufacturing contraction shows signs of easing in January
* US job openings post surprising gain in December
* Construction spending for US is surprisingly weak in December
* US manufacturing activity continues sinking in January via ISM survey data
* Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 1/4 point as…
* Fed’s Powell says central bank not done lifting rates yet
* US hiring at companies slows sharply in January, ADP reports:
Major Asset Classes | January 2023 | Performance Review
Global markets roared back to life in January, led by US real estate shares. The only slice of the major asset classes that lost ground last month: commodities, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 1 February 2023
* Federal Reserve expected to slow rate hiking today to 1/4 point
* Fed’s Powell may stress today that inflation fight is far from over
* China’s manufacturing contraction eases in January via PMI survey data
* Eurozone manufacturing contraction eases, suggesting worst has passed
* Eurozone inflation slows for third straight month in January
* Key employment cost index for US rose less than forecast in Q4
* US consumer confidence eased in January but above 2022’s low
* Chicago PMI falls more than forecast in January, indicating deeper contraction
* US home price growth cools gain in November, extending run of softer pricing:
Deep-Value ETF Report: 31 January 2023
The energy sector has been red hot for much of the past year, but there are still pockets in this corner that remain battered, at least in relative terms. Notably, oil and gas equipment stocks remain deep in the red in absolute and relative terms, based on relative rankings for a set of 145 ETFs that cover the waterfront for the major asset classes.
Macro Briefing: 31 January 2023
* China’s economy grows in January (PMI survey)–first expansion since September
* Is a bull market returning to China’s stock market?
* Will China’s reopening keep global inflation higher for longer?
* Biden reportedly moves to halt US exports to Huawei, according to reports
* Eurozone GDP posts slight growth in Q4, beating expectations of a dip, but…
* German economy unexpectedly shrinks in Q4, raising risk of recession
* Demand for oil and gas will drop dramatically by 2050, BP projects
* IMF raises growth outlook for world economy in 2023:
US Real Estate Stocks Led Broad Rally Across Markets Last Week
Most of the major asset classes scored gains last week, led by US real estate investment trusts, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Jan. 27).
Macro Briefing: 30 January 2023
* Israel executes drone strike targeting defense compound in Iran
* German economy unexpectedly contracts in Q4
* Will wages or low unemployment drive Fed’s inflation-taming policy?
* Japan and Netherlands join US to limit chip tech exports to China
* Fed’s preferred inflation gauge eased again in December
* Pending home sales in US rose in December for first time since May
* US consumer spending fell for second month in December:
