* US sends aircraft carrier group to eastern Mediterranean after attack on Israel
* Oil prices rise after Hamas attack on Israel
* OPEC raises long-term oil demand outlook
* Weighing the odds that Treasury yields will keep rising
* Private-credit firms are rapidly rising source of lending for corporate America
* Bank stocks under pressure from rising rates
* Strong rise in September US payrolls will nudge Fed toward another rate hike:
Angus Deaton
Review via NPR
Deaton (and Case) argue that the alarming rise in deaths of despair amongst non-college-educated Americans — which accounts for almost two-thirds of the adult population — is intimately related to their fading economic prospects. Deaton writes that “the decline of good jobs” is a crucial driver of despair. “This decline, in response to globalization and, more importantly, technical change (robots), is made much worse in the United States than elsewhere by the grotesquely exorbitant cost of healthcare,” Deaton writes. “Beyond that, when bad things happen and people need help, the safety net in the United States is fragmentary compared with those in other rich countries.”
The ongoing bear market in Treasury bonds is among the worst on record, but several sectors of the fixed-income market remain ports in a storm, based on year-to-date results through Thursday (Oct. 5) for a set of fixed-income ETFs.
* The slide in Treasury bond prices since 2020 is among the worst on record
* China’s economy faces years of headwinds due to real estate crisis
* More than 40% of small firms report difficulty in finding workers
* Oil prices set for biggest weekly decline in 6 months
* Average US mortgage rate rises to 23-year high: 7.49%
* Exxon Mobil near deal in acquiring shale driller Pioneer
* Narrowing US trade gap in August expected to support Q3 GDP growth
* US jobless claims remain low, suggesting labor market strength in near term:
Just when you thought it was safe to assume that the soft-landing fix was in, the bond market has thrown a wrench into the machine. So it goes with the constantly shape-shifting risk profile for the US business cycle. Most of the time the changes are relatively trivial. Is this time different?
* Hard landing risk for US economy rising as Treasury yields increase
* Rise in interest rates creates bigger challenge for managing deficits
* A stock market crash may be the only savior for a falling bond market: Barclays
* Earth on track for hottest year on record, predicts European climate agency
* ISM Mfg Index edged lower in September but still reflects moderate growth
* US private employment growth slowed sharply in September via ADP data:
Rising interest rates may threaten the “soft landing” outlook for the US economy, but the upcoming preliminary estimate of third-quarter GDP from the government still looks set to report that output picked up from Q2.
* Republicans remove House speaker, leaving chamber in chaos
* Rising Treasury yields threaten ‘soft landing’ scenario for US economy
* Two Fed officials say interest rates will likely stay high
* US auto sales rose in Q3 despite strikes and higher interest rates
* ‘Stalling and divergent’ global economy expected, UN trade division predicts
* Saudi Arabia says its oil production cuts will last through end of year
* US job openings post unexpected gain in August:
The expected return for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to edge higher in September from the previous month. Today’s revised long-run forecast for this benchmark — a market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash) via a set of ETF proxies — inched up to an annualized 6.7% return, the highest so far this year.
* OPEC leader: “resilient” demand and low investment could keep oil prices high
* United Auto Workers union reaches tentative deal on contract with Mack Trucks
* Office market headed for crash in US, investor survey says
* Office attendance in big cities still half of pre-pandemic level
* Construction spending in US increased for eighth straight month in August
* US ISM Manufacturing Index edges higher again in September, close to neutral:
