Clara E. Mattei
Excerpt via Promarket.org
Austerity has been so widespread in its uptake over the last century that it has become largely undetectable: the economics of austerity, with its prescribed budgetary cuts and public moderation, is largely synonymous with today’s economics. This makes a critical history of austerity, especially one rendered in class terms, profoundly challenging. But to the extent that we stop perceiving austerity as a sincere toolbox for managing an economy, and when we consider its history through the lens of class, it becomes clear that austerity preserves something foundational to our capitalist society. For capitalism to work in delivering economic growth, the social relation of capital— people selling their labor power for a wage— must be uniform across a society. In other words, economic growth presupposes a certain sociopolitical order, or capital order. Austerity, viewed as a set of fiscal, monetary, and industrial guardrails on an economy, ensures the sanctity of these social relations. The structural limitations it imposes on spending and wages ensure that, for the vast majority of those living in a society, “work hard, save hard” is more than just an expression of toughness; it’s the only path to survival.
Monitoring Investment Trends With ETF Pairs: 18 November 2022
Risk-off sentiment continues to dominate global markets. Although there have been hints that the worst of the selling has passed, there’s still plenty of room for skepticism, based on trends for key markets via a set of ETF pairs for prices through Thursday’s close (Nov. 17).
Macro Briefing: 18 November 2022
* N. Korea fires ICBM into sea near Japan in ‘brazen violation’ of UN resolutions
* UK finance minister warns of hard times ahead for Britain’s economy
* Rate hikes have had ‘limited effect’ on US inflation, says St. Louis Fed president
* US mortgage rates fell sharply last week
* Philly Fed Mfg Index slides in November, dropping to lowest level since May 2020
* New filings for US jobless benefits remain low for week ending Nov. 12
* US housing starts fall sharply in October:
Fed Pivot Watch: 17 November 2022
Speculation that the Federal Reserve is close to pausing its rate hikes took a hit this week after a Fed official downplayed the odds in a TV interview on Wednesday.
Macro Briefing: 17 November 2022
* Republicans win control of House
* NATO says “no indication” that missile strike in Poland came from Russia
* US homebuilder sentiment slide for 11th straighth month in November
* US import prices fall for fourth straight month in October
* Atlanta Fed’s business inflation expectations steady at 3.3% in November
* US industrial production declines in October, first monthly slide since August
* US retail sales rebound sharply in October, rising more than expected:
US Economic Growth Expected To Continue In Q4
The recovery in US economic activity in the third quarter appears set to continue in Q4, based on the median for a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Although the numbers point to a slowdown in growth, the current Q4 nowcast highlights the possibility that output will post back-to-back quarterly increases for the first time this year.
Macro Briefing: 16 November 2022
* NATO convenes emergency meeting after missile hits Poland
* Biden says missile that hit Poland ‘unlikely’ fired from Russia
* Russia denies blame for missile that strikes Poland
* Group of 20 leading economies condemn Russia for Ukraine war
* UK inflation rises to 41-year high in October: +11.1%
* US household debt surges at fastest pace 15 years fueled by credit card use
* US wholesale inflation rose less than expected in October
* NY Fed Manufacturing Index rebounds in November but outlook weakens:
Torturing The Data: Mid-Term Elections Implications
It’s been tempting in recent weeks to look at the stock market’s performance following US mid-term elections as biased upward for reasons linked to a special factor that prevails after voting. This is probably narrative mining than robust quantitative analysis.
Macro Briefing: 15 November 2022
* Republicans now within 1 seat of retaking House after voting updates
* Fed’s Brainard says rate hikes likely to slow at next meeting
* China retail sales and industrial output post weaker-than-expected results
* Amazon reportedly plans to announce mass layoffs
* Global population reaches 8 billion
* Americans expecting higher inflation for year ahead via NY Fed October survey
* Japan’s economy unexpectedly contracts in Q3
* Economists lift inflation outlook through 2023, according to new survey:
Real Estate ex-US Led Ongoing Rebound In Markets Last Week
The major asset classes continued to recover in the trading week through Friday, Nov. 11, based on a set of ETF proxies. The lone exception: a broad measure of commodities.