* Saudi Arabia and other major oil producers announce oil output cut
* Analysts predict oil at $100 per barrel after OPEC’s surprise output cut
* China factory growth stalled in March, according to PMI survey
* Eurozone factory output rises slightly in March via PMI survey data
* Credit risk for bonds matters again in the wake of banking turmoil
* “Dr. Doom” remains as gloomy as ever on the economic outlook
* Lake Tulare’s return in California will raise prices for variety of farm goods
* Fed’s preferred inflation metric eases but remains high:

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● Gradual: The Case for Incremental Change in a Radical Age
Greg Berman and Aubrey Fox
Review via The Economist
Revolutionaries have the best slogans. The Bolsheviks shouted “Peace! Land! Bread!” Mao Zedong promised a “Great Leap Forward”. Che Guevara claimed to “tremble with indignation at every injustice”. Advocates of gradual change, by contrast, find it hard to compose a good rallying cry. No crowd ever worked itself into a frenzy chanting: “What do we want? Incremental reform! When do we want it? When budgetary conditions allow!”
But as Greg Berman and Aubrey Fox argue in “Gradual”, incrementalism works. Revolutionaries promise paradise but often bring about bloodshed, bread lines and book-banning. Humanity has grown more prosperous by making a long series of often modest improvements to an unsatisfactory status quo. The Industrial Revolution, despite its name, was not a single, sudden event but thousands of cumulative innovations spread across nearly a century. “Over time, incremental reforms can add up to something truly transformative,” note the authors.

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Yesterday’s post reviewed the mixed signals for US recession risk based on CapitalSpectator.com’s proprietary business-cycle indexes. Today’s follow-up will take a deeper look at the data set in search of insight for deciding what comes next.

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* Trump indicted on criminal charges in New York
* Finland wins approval to join NATO
* Eurozone inflation falls sharply in March at headline level but core keeps rising
* Is the Fed trying to do too much all at once?
* China’s manufacturing activity expands at slower pace in March
* China consumer activity rises to highest level in over a decade in March
* Bank Borrowing from Fed falls further, a sign that bank crisis is easing
* US mortgage rates ease for third straight week
* US Q4 GDP growth revised down slightly to +2.6%
* US jobless claims continue to rise for year-over-year pace:

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A number of usually reliable indicators in recent months have warned of elevated recession risk for the US, but so far the economy has proven resistant to the darker forecasts that are bubbling in some quarters.

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* Taiwan president’s US visit could provoke strong China reaction, says analyst
* Wall Street Journal reporter arrested in Russia on charges of spying
* GOP bill in House aims to sharply increase US oil output
* Small banks losing deposits to larger institutions after SVB collapse
* Spain inflation falls to 19-month low
* AI starting to have impact on white-collar jobs
* Research suggests ChatGPT may provide assistance in portfolio management
* US pending home sales rise for third straight month in February:

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Despite warning signs flashing from several indicators, the US economy is expected to report moderate growth in next month’s “advance” GDP report for the first quarter, based on a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.

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* Taiwan’s president heads to US for visit, provoking China
* Fed’s Barr: there’s a ‘need’ for stronger bank regulation after SVB collapse
* BlackRock forecasts that investor bets on Fed rate cuts this year are wrong
* US Consumer Confidence Index ticks up in March, holding at middling range
* US electricity from renewables exceeds coal-based output for first time
* Amazon reportedly eyeing purchase of AMC movie theater chain
* US trade deficit in goods widened modestly in February
* US home prices continue to decelerate in January, easing to +2.5% annual pace:

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Forecasts that relative underperformers in the equities space are poised for a turnaround is a hardy perennial, but the expected change always seems to be postponed for several of the usual suspects. Notably, projections that foreign, small-cap and value stocks are set to outperform their broad US, large-cap and growth counterparts are facing new headwinds this year.

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* SVB collapse was “textbook case of mismanagement”: Fed official
* Banking turmoil due to ‘sentiment contagion’, say analysts
* US and Japan announce trade deal on electric vehicle battery minerals
* Bond market is still flashing warning signs for the economy
* Semiconductor firms may have to choose between US and China
* Wind-power industry projects rapid growth this year after 2022 slowdown
* China ramps up emergency loans to financially struggling nations
* Modest growth resumes in Texas manufacturing: Dallas Fed Mfg Index
* Regional bank stocks rally, suggesting banking turmoil is easing:

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