US jobless claims rose last week to the highest level since October, raising a possible warning flag for the labor market outlook. “Jobless claims continue to rise, but they are rising at a slow pace, so it’s a trend worth watching, but too soon to sound the alarm,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management.
May is shaping up to as challenging month for reading the macro tea leaves in an effort to gauge how tariffs are affecting the US economy. Tomorrow’s payrolls report from the Labor Department may provide clarity. Meanwhile, the early profile for last month is a study in contrasts.
US services sector unexpectedly contracted slightly in May, according to survey data via ISM Services Index. The index dropped to 49.4 last month, just below the neutral 50 mark, easing to the lowest level since June 2024. Another survey of the services sector paints a brighter profile: the S&P Global US Services PMI posted a firmer pace of moderate growth last month. “That said, the improvements come from a low base, following a very gloomy April, which saw growth nearly stall as confidence sank to a two-and-half year low,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The US stock market has recovered most of its recent losses, and the rebound has left momentum strategies far ahead in the performance horse race for equity factor results this year, based on a set of ETFs through yesterday’s close (June 3).
US job openings rose in April, highlighting resilience in the labor market. Despite uncertainty related to the trade war, the Labor Department reported that employers posted 7.4 million job vacancies in April, up from 7.2 million in March. “Once companies are more certain that bad times are coming, they will start to shed workers,” Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a commentary. “However, the economy is still near full employment. We suspect companies are still hoarding workers until they are very, very sure about an economic downturn.″
The long-run expected total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher again in May, edging up to an annualized 7.2% from the 7.0% estimate in the previous month. Today’s estimate is slightly below GMI’s realized 10-year performance. The forecast is calculated as the average of three models (defined below) for GMI, an unmanaged global benchmark that’s based on a market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes (excluding cash).
US manufacturing contracted for a third straight month in May, based on survey data. The ISM Manufacturing Index edged lower last month to a six-month low of 48.5, moderately below the neutral 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. “The outlook for the manufacturing sector looks downbeat, particularly with the initial surge in demand from front-loading now behind us,” said Matthew Martin, senior economist at Oxford Economics. “Businesses are contending with higher input costs, supply disruptions, and domestic and foreign customers wary of committing to new orders.”
US stocks rebounded in May, posting the first monthly gain since January. The strong recovery lifted American shares to the top of the leaderboard for the major asset classes last month, based on a set of ETFs.
US consumer spending rose for a third month in April, matching expectations with a 0.2% monthly increase. Profiling consumption expenditures on a real (inflation-adjusted) year-over-year basis suggest the trend still looks resilient via a 3.2% increase (see chart below). Notably, the year-over-year change for real disposable income (DPI) continued to rebound, rising to a 2.9% pace. The pickup in DPI in recent months suggests that the consumer sector will continue to grow in the near term and provide timely support for the economy that’s facing tariff-related headwinds.
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