* Biden to speak with Chinese counterpart Xi as tensions rise
* Global growth slowing, raising recession risk, IMF warns
* Fed may be just getting started in battling inflation
* Fed-induced recession is worse than inflation, writes former Fed economist
* Recession in Europe is all but assured as Russia squeezes gas flow
* US home prices post second month of slower but still strong growth in May
* New home sales in US fell more than expected in June
* US consumer confidence falls for third straight month in July:

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It’s all about high inflation at the moment. The Federal Reserve is certainly focused on inflation risk and is set to raise interest rates again in tomorrow’s policy announcement (Wed., July 27). The view that “inflation is transitory” is all but dead as a viable narrative on Wall Street and beyond and so the future looks obvious. Considering the potential for a return of disinflation/deflation (D/D) risk, in other words, appears clueless in the extreme. For that reason alone, let’s consider its likelihood at some point in the near future, if only as an exercise in contrarian thinking.

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* Tensions rise between US and China over planned Taiwan trip by Pelosi
* Russia set to further cut gas deliveries to Germany
* Is the US recession? Deciding yea or nay is tricky at the moment
* Economist Nouriel Roubini predicts deep recession due partly to high debt loads
* Supply of negative-yielding debt has fallen sharply since late-2020
* US growth running below historical average for second month in June:

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One solid weekly bounce doesn’t mean much after months of losses, but hope still springs eternal. Only time will tell if the latest bounce marks a turning point, or not. But for one week, at least, global markets delivered something other than gloom via a uniform rise in prices for the major asset classes over the trading week through Friday, Jul. 22, based on a set of proxy ETFs.

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* Treasury Sec. Yellen downplays US recession risk
* Peak inflation signs are emerging, but questions remain on how fast it can fall
* US economic headwinds strengthen via slower growth and more rate hikes
* Wall Street sees possibility of rate cuts for 2023
* Gold can’t catch a break, despite high inflation
* Eurozone economy contracts in July via PMI survey data
* German business sentiment falls to 2-year low in July
* Africa and south Asia expected to bear brunt of climate change instability.
* A survey-based GDP proxy shows the US economy contracting in July:

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● The Upside of Uncertainty: A Guide to Finding Possibility in the Unknown
Nathan Furr and Susannah Harmon Furr
Review via Financial Times
Uncertainty in life is, ironically, certain. The past two years amid a pandemic have been no exception. Whether you’re a chief executive steering a business through the negative effects of lockdowns, a furloughed employee or, worse, someone who has faced job loss, at times the uncertainty for many has felt crippling.
However, Nathan Furr, a strategy and innovation professor at Insead business school in Paris, and Susannah Harmon Furr, an entrepreneur, believe we can reframe uncertainty in a way that helps us use it to our advantage.
According to the authors, our brains are wired to fear uncertainty’s downsides, but since it is not going away “learning to face the unknown well is critical to our ability to survive and thrive”. Based on both research and interviews, the book provides a practical framework that can be applied to help us find the possibilities from uncertainty and act on them.

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Three economic reports released on Thursday point to a rising possibility that a recession is near for the US economy. The threat of a contraction still doesn’t appear imminent and there’s still room for debate on the question of whether a recession is fate. But as new data on jobless claims, the Leading Economic Index and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index remind, the trend continues to soften. At the very least, the latest numbers show that economic activity continues to slow.

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* European Central Bank raises interest rates more than expected
* Eurozone appears to slip into recession in July via PMI survey data
* UK economy continues to grow in July but at 17-month low via PMI survey data
* US Leading Economic Index declines for fourth straight month
* Russia-Ukraine deal expected to restart grain exports
* Federal gov’t tells states in West to make urgent cuts in water use
* US jobless claims rise to new 8-month high, signaling labor market warning:

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The Treasury yield curve is widely used as a first approximation of estimating recession risk. This is usually limited to one or two sets of maturities. Does this simple model find traction if we expand the analytics across the full sweep of the yield curve? The short answer, yes.

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* Russia restarts gas flow to Europe
* Is the world ready for higher interest rates? Maybe not
* EU urges nations in currency bloc to cut gas use by 15%
* US consumer spending still looks resilient. Will it last?
* 2yr/10yr Treasury yield curve is inverted, predicting recession
* Italian Prime Minister Draghi resigns, sending Italy into new political turmoil
* US existing home sales fall for fifth straight month in June:

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