Bitcoin is back in the headlines after the world’s largest cryptocurrency tumbled sharply on Thursday, briefly slipping below $61,000. The drop marks a decline of more than 50% from its October peak, when it surged past $126,000 to a record high.
Moderate Growth Still Expected For Delayed US Q4 GDP Report
Barring another glitch in the federal government’s on-again-off-again operating schedule, the delayed report for the fourth-quarter GDP report is set for release in two weeks (Feb. 20). When the update arrives, it’s on track to report a softer-but-still-resilient expansion for last year’s final quarter, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator.
Small Cap Stocks Continue To Roar In 2026
Three weeks ago I wondered if the leadership rotation this year toward small- and micro-cap stocks would persist. There have been multiple false dawns in recent years as large caps and growth stocks regained the performance crown after a burst of small-cap strength. The case for arguing this time is different is still shaky, but small-cap strength persists, based on a set of equity risk factor ETFs through yesterday’s close (Feb. 3).
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 3 February 2026
The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) held steady in January at 7%-plus while the benchmark’s trailing 10-year shot higher through last month, rising above 10%. The near-three-percentage-point spread between the high-flying trailing results and the relatively moderate outlook is unusually wide. The gap suggests that investors should manage expectations down for the performance outlook for globally diversified portfolios in the years ahead.
Major Asset Classes | January 2026 | Performance Review
Commodities and foreign stocks led the performance race in January for the major asset classes, based on a set of ETF proxies. Meanwhile, offshore assets, supported by a weak dollar, outperformed their US counterparts by a wide margin.
Book Bits: 31 January 2026
● It’s on You: How Corporations and Behavioral Scientists Have Convinced Us That We’re to Blame for Society’s Deepest Problems
Nick Chater and George Loewenstein
Summary via publisher (Basic Venture)
Two decades ago, behavioral economics burst from academia to the halls of power, on both sides of the Atlantic, with the promise that correcting individual biases could help transform society. The hope was that governments could deploy a new approach to addressing society’s deepest challenges, from inadequate retirement planning to climate change—gently, but cleverly, nudging people to make choices for their own good and the good of the planet. It was all very convenient, and false. As behavioral scientists Nick Chater and George Loewenstein show in It’s on You, nudges rarely work, and divert us from policies that do. For example, being nudged to switch to green energy doesn’t cut carbon, and it distracts from the real challenge of building a low-carbon economy.
Foreign Bonds Lead US Fixed Income In 2026
Diversifying into foreign bond markets has been a winning trade for US investors during the opening month of 2026. Using a set of ETFs to track performance highlights widespread outperformance so far this year over US bonds, based on returns through yesterday’s close (Jan. 29).
The Fed’s Job Isn’t Getting Any Easier
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday, as expected, but the challenges are increasing for identifying the right monetary policy for the path ahead.
Is Weak Consumer Sentiment Flashing A Economic Warning?
Confidence in the economy fell sharply in January, slumping to a 12-year low, according to the Conference Board latest survey data. On its face, the sharp drop raises questions about consumer spending in the months ahead. But until there’s confirmation in the hard data, it’s best to view the polling cautiously and look for supporting context in other numbers.
Fed Rate Cuts On Hold Till June, According To Market Forecasts
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its target rate unchanged at tomorrow’s policy meeting, marking a shift after three straight cuts in 2025. Keeping rates steady is the current outlook until June, but several factors are in play that could change the calculus in the weeks ahead.