* Russian forces moving in on Ukrainian capital of Kyiv
* Kremlin will analyze Ukraine’s offer to discuss a non-aligned status
* Countries around the world continue to pile new sanctions on Russia
* Ukraine war reshuffles risk outlook for global economy
* Will the Russian invasion of Ukraine change the Fed’s rate-hike plans?
* EU set to sever 70% of Russia’s banking system from global markets
* US officials asked China for help to avoid war in Ukraine. China said no
* Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens exports of critical commodities
* US growth picked up in January via Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index
* US jobless claims fell last week; Q4 GDP growth revised slightly higher
* Brent oil surged on Thursday before ending just below $100/bbl:

If there was any subtlety to Russia’s increasingly intimidating behavior toward Ukraine in recent weeks, it gave way today as Putin launched a full-scale military invasion of its neighbor. How this plays out is unclear, except that whatever unfolds it’s obvious that a major geopolitical regime shift has been triggered. Exactly what this means for the global economy, markets, international relations and beyond is hazy at best this morning. Meanwhile, here are three key questions to ponder as a needless war begins just across Europe’s eastern border.

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* Russia invades Ukraine with barrage of missile, artillery and air attacks
* Easing energy price shock by raising output will be limited due to pinched supply
* Gold rises above $1900/oz, highest in over a year, as Russia invades Ukraine
* Oil’s surge will bring double shock of slowing growth and raising inflation
* US and allies poised to roll out further, sweeping sanctions against Russia
* China refuses to condemn Russia’s attack on Ukraine
* Oil prices soar amid worries about future energy supplies:

US inflation remains elevated and appears on track to remain so for the immediate future. There are hints in some corners that the annual pace of consumer inflation will ease, but the modest optimism for this outlook, which is based on previously published data, is complicated if not eradicated due to the fast-moving Ukraine-Russia crisis. 

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* US and its allies prepare to step up sanctions pressure on Russia
* Germany halts approval of Russia-supplied Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline
* Russia’s economy is prepared for the worst amid new sanctions
* Ukraine crisis raises economic risk, says Atlanta Fed’s Bostic
* Should portfolios prepare for recession? No, advises JP Morgan strategist
* US consumer confidence fell again in February
* Home prices rose 18.8% in 2021, highest in 34 years
* Russia threat to Ukraine may complicate Fed’s plans for rate hikes
* US growth accelerates in February to a 2-month high via PMI survey data:

It’s not an invasion, but it’s no longer the status quo of recent history. Let’s call it taking the asymmetric-warfare playbook up several notches and raising the threat of conventional military combat closer to Europe’s eastern border. Whatever you call it, the decision by President Putin to send Russian troops into eastern Ukraine on a “peacekeeping” mission substantially raises uncertainty and increases risk for the global economy and financial markets.

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* Putin orders troops into eastern Ukraine on “peacekeeping” mission
* US and European governments set to roll out new sanctions on Russia
* Will Putin’s troops stop in eastern Ukraine or is this start of full invasion?
* Oil prices rise amid higher geopolitical tension
* Bearish bets on stocks are surging
* Spike in geopolitical risk takes a bite out of cryptocurrencies
* What’s at stake for the global economy as conflict draws closer in Ukraine?
* Fed Governor Bowman suggests 1/2-point hike possible if inflation is hot
* Gold trades near 9-month high as Putin orders troops into eastern Ukraine:

In a mixed week for performances of the major asset classes, inflation-indexed government bonds ex-US posted the strongest gain, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Feb. 18).

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* Biden agrees ‘in principle’ to meet Putin to discuss Ukraine
* Kremlin says: ‘no concrete plans’ for a Biden-Putin summit
* Iran reports significant progress toward reviving 2015 nuclear deal
* US average daily COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations continue steady decline
* Drop in federal relief spending could help curb US inflation
* The recent surge in used car prices starts to reverse in early February
* Eurozone growth picks up in Feb as pricing pressure accelerated
* UK private sector growth accelerates to its strongest since June 2021
* US Macro-Markets Risk Index turns negative, signaling softer growth:

● Risk Thinking… In an Uncertain World
Ron S. Dembo
Summary via publisher (Archway Publishing)
Our age of radical uncertainty requires a new way of assessing risk that pays more attention to the extreme outliers that too often become tomorrow’s reality. Today’s models cannot cope with the frightening new unpredictable risks we face every day that frequently seem to come out of left field – the effects of climate change, a killer pandemic, a cascading wildfire, a financial crisis triggered by faceless algorithms, or a devastating cyber-attack that shuts down the electric power grid. This accessible book advocates a new, more realistic approach to analyzing risk and strategizing—one that is less reliant on a single solution or unnuanced forecast. They help us look for the almost unimaginable situations that we cannot see.

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