* US faces government shutdown without new funding deal
* Hurricane Ian batters Cuba; Florida’s west coast is next
* Global economy is slowing more than expected, advises OECD
* China’s economic output expected to lag rest of Asia for first time since 1990
* China’s currency falls to near 14-year low vs. US dollar
* Bank of England says it will ‘not hesitate’ to lift rates despite plunge in pound
* New Boston Fed president: More rate hikes needed to cool inflation
* Growth in Texas factory activity picked up in September
* Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’, a.k.a. VIX Index, surges to 3-month high
* Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index highlights ongoing growth slowdown for US:

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For a second straight week, all the major asset classes fell in trading through Friday’s close (Sep. 23), based on a set of ETF proxies. From bonds to stocks, along with real estate shares and commodities, red ink swept across global markets.

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* US warns Russia of ‘horrific’ consequences if nuclear weapons used in Ukraine
* Far-right leader looks set to become Italy’s next prime minister
* Tropical Storm Ian, expected to become hurricane, heading to Florida
* British pound tumbles to record low vs. the dollar
* War in Ukraine to cost global economy $2.8 trillion by 2023’s end: OCED
* Buying the dip isn’t working this time… at least not yet
* US business activity continued contracting in September via PMI survey data:

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● The Invention of Tomorrow: A Natural History of Foresight
Thomas Suddendorf, et al.
Review via Psychology Today
Human foresight obviously has its flaws, and try as we might, we can’t predict the future with certainty. However, the fact that we can even imagine and speculate about the future is nothing short of extraordinary. This ability is what has allowed humans to achieve the seemingly unachievable. The Invention of Tomorrow: A Natural History of Foresight by Suddendorf, Redshaw, and Bulley (out now, from Basic Books) delves into foresight, exploring how it works, how it develops, and how it evolved. The book is meticulously researched, thought-provoking, and engrossing, and I highly recommend it.

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As evidence piles up that the stock market is caught in a bear market, the focus inevitably turns to analytics that will signal a high-confidence forecast that the selling has reached exhausted itself and a bottom has arrived. There are many possibilities for crunching the data and all come with caveats. But perhaps the leading first approximation is the start of interest-rate cuts.

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* Kremlin-run voting begins Friday in Russia-held regions of Ukraine
* Central banks around the world hike rates after Fed increase
* US Leading Economic Index fell for sixth straight month in August
* Investor pessimism returns to 2008-era high via BoA survey
* Eurozone contraction deepens in September, according to PMI survey data
* UK business activity falls at quickest rate since January 2021 via PMI survey data
* US jobless claims edged up last week but remain near historic lows:

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As comments from heads of central banks go, yesterday’s press conference was relatively lucid. For anyone who remains confused about the likely path ahead for monetary policy, well, they probably weren’t listening.

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* NATO chief condemns Putin’s latest threat of nuclear war
* Federal Reserve lifts interest rates with third straight 1/4-point hike
* Fed’s Powell suggests recession may be price for taming inflation
* Fed anticipates lifting rates as high as 4.6% to tame inflation
* Bank of England under pressure to follow Fed with big rate hike
* Home sellers are scarce as rising rates convince homeowners to stay put
* Yen rises after Japan intervenes in currency market for first time since 1998
* After Switzerland’s rate hike, Japan is last country with negative rates
* US existing home sales fell for seventh straight month in August:

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The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates today and another 75-basis-points hike is widely expected. What’s less clear is how long and how fast the central bank tightens policy. No one knows the answer at this point, not even the Fed and so the path ahead is arguably the main known risk factor for the markets. In turn, pondering where the terminal rate lies is the burning question for investors and analysts trying to forecast economic activity.

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* Russia announces ‘partial mobilization’ of citizens in escalation of Ukraine war
* Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates 75 basis points today
* US and Canadian warships sail through Taiwan Strait
* Germany nationalizes energy giant Uniper amid energy crisis
* Asia’s developing economies set to grow faster than China’s
* European businesses rethink plans for a ‘closed’ China
* Disinflation may return, predicts economist at Capital Economics
* US housing starts rebounded in August as new permits plunged:

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