Energy stocks and commodities have rallied sharply this year but remain on the short list for our deep-value list, based on relative rankings for a set of nearly 150 ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 12 November 2021
* Urgent action on climate change requested at COP26 climate summit
* Belarus warns Europe he can cut gas supply over border dispute with EU
* Conflict over Belarus-Poland border crisis spills over to UN debate
* Record-high job openings reported in US since June, says jobs site Indeed
* Is the current inflation surge echoing the temporary 1946-48 price spike?
* The White House has a plan to slow inflation. Will it work? If so, when?
* Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model nowcasts strong Q4 economic rebound:
US Retail Sales Expected To Boost Q4 Economic Rebound Forecast
The sharp slowdown in US economic growth in the third quarter (driven by weaker consumer spending) surprised economists, but the case for a rebound in Q4 is building. A key factor in the upbeat forecast: projections that consumer buying will bounce back. Next week’s update (Nov. 16) on retail sales for October is expected to offer more support for managing expectation up.
Macro Briefing: 11 November 2021
* US and China announce climate agreement at COP26 summit
* Latest increase in US inflation raises odds for rate hike
* US dollar reaches 2021 highs against sterling and the euro on Thursday
* US wage gains in October evaporate after factoring in inflation
* Financial institutions may be new targets of climate litigation
* Belarus president threatens to Shut EU gas flow over border crisis
* UK GDP growth slowed in the third quarter
* US jobless claims fell again last week, setting another pandemic low
* US consumer inflation accelerated in October, reaching a 30-year high:
Outlier Risk, Part II
In the first article in this series we looked at a basic technique for identifying outliers – extreme data points – in a time series. The tool of choice: slicing the numbers into quartiles and using the interquartile range (IQR) to define “normal.” It’s a useful starting point, but it may not always suffice. Fortunately, there are alternative methodologies that can be run for additional perspective. For comparison, let’s focus on one and review how outlier risk stacks up using Z-scores.
Macro Briefing: 10 November 2021
* St. Louis Fed President James Bullard predicts two rate hikes in 2022
* General Electric announces it will split into three companies
* American households are carrying record amounts of debt
* China’s producer-price inflation surged to a 26-year high in October
* Economic advisers to the German government cut growth forecast
* Fed Gov Brainard interviewed at White House as possible replacement for Powell
* 30-year US Treasury yield falls to 1.79%, lowest since July
* US small business sentiment fell in October, lowest since March
* US producer-price inflation held steady at 8.6% y-o-y, highest since 2010:
US Inflation Outlook Continues To Run Hot
Anyone looking for a convincing signs that inflation’s peaking via tomorrow’s CPI report for October (Nov. 10) looks set to be disappointed.
Macro Briefing: 9 November 2021
* China’s real estate ills may affect US financial system, Fed warns
* US inflation is expected to run higher before peaking, Goldman Sachs predicts
* Negative real interest rates prevail across developed economies
* Migrant crisis escalates on Poland/European Union border
* Surging heating costs threaten a winter run of inflation
* Global holdings of Chinese stocks and bonds rise despite regulatory crackdown
* Tesla’s bull run creates benchmark risk for fund managers who missed the rally
* Bitcoin and ether reach new peaks
* The Covid recession was strange — really strange
* 30-year Treasury yield near 4-month low ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report:
US Stocks Led Widespread Gains For Global Markets Last Week
American shares topped rallies for nearly every slice of the major asset classes for the trading week through Friday, Nov. 5, based on a set of US-listed ETFs. The only loser last week: commodities.
Macro Briefing: 8 November 2021
* $1 trillion infrastructure bill awaits Biden’s signature
* The rise of Big Tech shows no sign of slowing
* Tensions in Iraq increase after failed attempt to assassinate prime minister
* Are Pfizer and Merck’s anti-viral pills to treat Covid-19 game changers?
* China’s economic growth will continue to slow despite record trade surplus
* China’s tech crackdown drives SoftBank’s $3.5 billion quarterly loss
* US set to lift a nearly 20-month international travel ban
* UK’s trade deal with the EU at risk of collapse over Northern Ireland
* US payrolls rose more than expected in October–strongest gain in 3 months:
